\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 61 Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) )
Event: the company released its report for the first quarter of 2022. During the reporting period, the company realized an operating revenue of 2.975 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.40%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.138 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.16%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 1.123 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.69%.
Kinsey pharmaceutical: growth hormone continues to maintain rapid growth, and the market still has large growth space. During the reporting period, the subsidiary kinsay pharmaceutical achieved a revenue of 2.648 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.69%; The net profit was 1.205 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.205%. According to the data of sample hospitals, in 2021, short acting growth hormone of kinsay pharmaceutical accounted for about 76% of the market share of the whole short acting preparations (including powder injection and water injection), indicating that the leading position of growth hormone of the company is still stable; In addition, the sales of sample hospitals increased by 14% year-on-year compared with 2020. Referring to the disclosure in the annual report, the revenue of Kinsey pharmaceutical in 2021 increased by 41.27% year-on-year, further indicating the strong growth of Kinsey growth hormone in the out of hospital market. Considering that the growth hormone market pattern is expected to remain unchanged in the short term after the intensive harvest in Guangdong, we expect that with the further improvement of the penetration rate of the whole growth hormone, the active expansion of the adult indication market of growth hormone and the effective expansion of the high-value long-term growth hormone market, there is still a large growth space in the whole growth hormone market in the future. As an industry leading company, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the market expansion.
Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) : the short-term performance is affected by the epidemic situation. In the long run, the amount of herpes zoster vaccine is worth looking forward to. During the reporting period, the subsidiary Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) achieved a revenue of 138 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.27%; The net profit was 17 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68.76%. The performance decline in 2022q1 is expected to be mainly due to the impact of covid-19 epidemic and the decline in varicella vaccine sales. It is expected to improve after the epidemic is alleviated in the future. In addition, in April 2022, the company’s application for marketing license of live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine was accepted by nmpa. Considering that at present, only the imported variety of GlaxoSmithKline’s shinrix is on the market in China (the vaccine was officially on the market in China on June 28, 2020), among the domestic varieties, only the green bamboo biological recombinant herpes zoster vaccine has entered the phase 2 clinical stage, and the Shanghai Institute of biological products’s herpes zoster vaccine has entered the phase 1 / 2 clinical stage Yidao biological recombinant herpes zoster vaccine has entered phase 1 / 2 clinical practice, and Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) is expected to maintain a 3-5-year window. We believe that the company’s competition pattern of herpes zoster vaccine is good, and it is expected to become another heavy variety of the company after being approved for listing in the future. Its long-term volume is worth looking forward to.
Investment suggestion: we expect the revenue growth rate of the company from 2022 to 2024 to be 27.24%, 26.92% and 26.11% respectively, the net profit growth rate to be 25.45%, 25.39% and 25.09% respectively, the corresponding EPS to be 11.65 yuan, 14.60 yuan and 18.27 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE to be 15.1 times, 12.1 times and 9.6 times respectively; Maintain the investment rating of buy-a.
Risk tips: the risk of intensified competition in the growth hormone market, the risk of intensive collection of growth hormone, the risk that the progress of clinical trial is less than expected, and the risk of clinical trial failure.
