\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 985 China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) )
Event: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 62.367 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.30%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.07%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.585 billion yuan. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 17.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.78%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.884 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.25%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.884 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 52.70%.
Comments:
With the increase of installed capacity and utilization hours, the performance increased significantly. The company’s installed capacity of nuclear power and Fengguang new energy increased significantly, especially Fengguang new energy, which made the company’s performance better in 2021. In addition, Fuqing No. 5 and Tianwan No. 6 units of nuclear power were put into commercial operation in January and June 2021 respectively, with a new nuclear power installed capacity of 2.28gw, which also contributed to the company’s nuclear power revenue and performance in 2021. In terms of utilization hours, in 2021, the average utilization hours of the company’s nuclear power was 7871 hours, an increase of 250 hours year-on-year; The utilization hours of wind power and photovoltaic power are also maintained at a good level, 2322 and 1423 hours respectively. Affected by factors such as the growth of installed capacity and the increase of utilization hours, the power generation and revenue of the company’s nuclear power, photovoltaic and wind power increased significantly in 2021, with power generation of 173123, 4.965 and 4.549 billion kwh respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 16.71%, 110.18% and 38.99% respectively; The revenue was 56.553 billion yuan, 2.845 billion yuan and 1.794 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 15.63%, 67.45% and 29.06% respectively.
In the first quarter, the price of nuclear power rose simultaneously, and the wind power generation continued to grow rapidly. As the installed capacity of nuclear power and Fengguang new energy continues to increase, the power generation of the company also continues to grow. In the first quarter of 2022, the power generation of the company was 47.034 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%; Among them, the power generation of nuclear power, photovoltaic and wind power was 44.340 billion kwh, 1.434 billion kWh and 1.260 billion kwh respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 14.40%, 55.05% and 22.23% respectively. In addition, the market-oriented transaction price of nuclear power increased with the rise of the market-oriented transaction price of coal and electricity, and the comprehensive average on grid price of the company increased, driving the further growth of the company’s performance in the first quarter.
Under the trend of normalization of nuclear power project approval, the development of nuclear power business tends to be stable. Policies support the safe and orderly development of nuclear power, and the approval of nuclear power projects shows a normalization trend. In April 2022, the national Standing Committee proposed the orderly development of nuclear power under the premise of strict supervision and ensuring safety, and approved the three new nuclear power units that have been included in the national plan. Among them, the company’s 2.50gw project of Sanmen Nuclear Power Units 3 and 4 was approved. The company’s nuclear power business project reserves are relatively sufficient, and the future project operation will drive the steady growth of the company’s nuclear power business. According to the announcement of the company, as of March 31, 2022, the installed capacity of nuclear power under construction held by the company was 6.35gw, and as of April 22, 2022, the approved installed capacity of nuclear power held by the company was 3.38gw.
Fengguang new energy has developed rapidly and contributed new increment of performance. According to the announcement of the company, as of March 31, 2022, the installed capacity of the company’s new energy holdings in operation is 8.87gw, including 2.63gw of wind power and 6.24gw of photovoltaic power. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the company will accelerate the development of Fengguang new energy power generation business. According to the announcement of the company, as of March 31, 2022, the installed capacity of projects under construction controlled by the company was 2.07gw, including 0.27gw of wind power and 1.80gw of photovoltaic power. With the gradual operation of the above projects in 2022, the revenue and performance of Fengguang new energy will be driven to further increase. In addition, according to the company’s plan, by 2025, the installed capacity of the company’s operating power will reach 56gw, with an increase space of 71.88% compared with 32.58gw in March 2022. Due to the long construction cycle of nuclear power, the increment is expected to be limited during the 14th Five Year Plan Period. Therefore, the main new installed capacity comes from Fengguang new energy, and the increment space of Fengguang new energy of the company is large.
Maintain the “buy” rating: as a leading enterprise in the China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) field, the company’s installed capacity is in a leading position. In the future, under the trend of normalization of nuclear power project approval, the company’s nuclear power business is expected to grow steadily. At the same time, as the new energy listing platform of CNNC group, the installed capacity of Fengguang new energy will maintain a rapid growth trend in the future and contribute new performance increment to the company. Considering that the company’s nuclear power business ushered in a simultaneous rise in volume and price in 2022 and the higher utilization hours of the company’s scenery, we adjusted the company’s revenue and performance. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 71.632 billion yuan, 75.555 billion yuan and 82.651 billion yuan respectively (69.897 billion yuan and 74.186 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2023 before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 14.85%, 5.48% and 9.39% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.898 billion yuan, 11.419 billion yuan and 12.443 billion yuan respectively (10.168 billion yuan and 11.321 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2023 before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 35.58%, 4.78% and 8.97% respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.58, 0.61 and 0.66 yuan respectively, and PE of 12.37, 11.80 and 10.83 times respectively.
Risk tip: there is a downward risk of electricity price. The government’s nuclear power approval is slower than expected, and the project progress is less than expected
