\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 197 Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) )
Event:
The company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarter report of 2022. In 2021, the operating revenue reached 1.938 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.53%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 313 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.53%; Deduct non net profit of 314 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%; EPS 0.67 yuan / share; It is proposed to pay 4.10 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue was 624 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.67%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 108 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.55%; Deduct non net profit of 110 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.2%.
Key investment points:
Epidemic factors put pressure on the performance of 2021q4 company. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 1.938 billion yuan (the same as + 7.5%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 313 million yuan (the same as - 8.5%); The revenue of Baijiu business was RMB 1.916 billion (the same as +6.9%), of which the sales volume / ton price were -3.4%/+10.6% year-on-year respectively, and the high / medium / low-grade liquor was RMB 1.35/4.8/0.80 billion respectively, an increase of 0.6%/30.9%/2.1% year-on-year. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin increased by 2.8pct to 51.4% year-on-year, mainly due to the direct price increase of old cellars and other high-end products at the beginning of the year. There is still a certain gap between the company and the annual target of 2.3 billion yuan in revenue and 550 million yuan in total profit set at the beginning of 2021. It is expected that due to the epidemic situation in Yili Area in October 2021, the company will strengthen sealing control and suspend logistics and delivery in some areas. 2021q4 company will achieve 473 million yuan in revenue (the same as - 26.5%) and 46 million yuan in net profit attributable to the parent company (the same as - 66.82%), and the performance is lower than expected.
In 2022q1, the gross profit margin declined due to the influence of the base, and the profitability was damaged, but the cash flow performance was bright, and the company gradually got rid of the impact of the epidemic. In 2022q1, the company overcame the impact of the epidemic, and the terminal dynamic sales gradually recovered from February to March. In a single quarter, the Baijiu business achieved a revenue of 622million yuan (the same as +14.86%), of which the high / medium / low-grade liquor increased by 9.4%, 31.7% and 13.9% respectively year-on-year; Within / outside Xinjiang increased by 13.0% and 24.9% respectively year-on-year. However, in 2021q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 18% year-on-year, and the net profit margin decreased by 7.06pct to 17.4% year-on-year. On the one hand, the gross profit margin in 2021q1 was high. In 2021q1, due to the upgrading of product structure and the price increase of some high-end products such as Laojiao, the company's gross profit margin rose sharply to a historical high of about 61.0%, and returned to a reasonable level in the reporting period (about 51.0%, down 10.0pct year-on-year); On the other hand, the sales expense rate of the company is the same as + 1.92pct, which is expected to be caused by the increase of expenses of yiliwang liquor and the increase of investment at the marketing end. In addition, the company's cash flow and advance receipts performed well, and the channel collection was positive. The sales revenue in the first quarter was 642 million yuan (the same as + 43.47%); Net operating cash flow of 136 million yuan (the same as + 670.75%); The closing advance collection was 129 million yuan, an increase of 91 / 37 million yuan year-on-year and month on month respectively.
The company has steadily promoted the marketing reform, and will fully benefit from the economic recovery and cultural and tourism development in Xinjiang in the future, and undertake the bonus of consumption upgrading. After management in recent years, the development environment in Xinjiang has become more harmonious and stable; After the new leadership took office at the end of 2021, the government actively promoted the economic construction of Xinjiang, gradually liberalized the epidemic control, and the consumption scenes such as catering and wedding banquet suppressed for nearly two years have recovered significantly. As the only main board listed company under the fourth division, the controlling shareholder, the company is the main tax source of BINGTUAN, and its strategic position has increased significantly. In 2022, the company will continue to promote marketing and market-oriented reform from the aspects of channel, organization, brand and layout outside the province. As the leader of Baijiu in Xinjiang, the company itself is one of the most distinctive labels in Xinjiang. In the future, the company will fully benefit from the economic recovery and cultural and tourism development in Xinjiang and undertake the bonus of consumption upgrading.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company's dynamic sales in the first quarter have gradually warmed up. With the arrival of the peak tourism season in Xinjiang, the sales are expected to accelerate the recovery, and it is expected to return to the same level in 2019 in 2022. The company is the leader of real estate liquor in Xinjiang. It is expected to fully enjoy the dividends of Xinjiang's economic development in the future. At the same time, it looks forward to the catalytic landing of favorable factors such as war investment to help the marketing reform. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.03/1.21/1.45 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 25 / 21 / 17 times respectively, giving a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: 1) the epidemic repeatedly affects the recovery of consumption in Xinjiang; 2) Price increase and acceptance of new products are lower than expected; 3) The macro-economy fluctuates greatly, affecting the consumption demand of Baijiu; 4) Industry policy changes lead to increased competition; 5) The price of raw materials has risen sharply; 6) Food safety and other issues
