\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 535 Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) )
Event: in the first quarter of 2012, the company realized an operating revenue of 1.869 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.97%, of which industrial revenue increased by 5.01% and commercial revenue increased by 11.82%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was – 557 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 272.52%, mainly due to the decrease of 867 million in the fair value of financial assets such as i-mab and Keji pharmaceutical held by the company, and 899 million in the income from changes in fair value over the same period last year; The net profit deducted from non profit was 232 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.79%.
The short-term performance is affected by the fair value adjustment of assets, and the non deduction performance is expected to gradually pick up. The company’s performance in the first quarter was greatly affected by the changes in the fair value of financial assets such as i-mab and Keji pharmaceutical. We believe that this is a short-term impact, and we should pay more attention to the deduction of non performance of the company. The non deduction performance is mainly affected by the production restriction and the decline of Tiqing centralized purchase price. We expect that the impact will gradually decrease from Q2 and is expected to return to the growth trend.
The Chinese medicine sector grew steadily, and the chemical medicine sector gradually warmed up. In the first quarter report of the company, the traditional Chinese medicine sector achieved an operating revenue of 1.128 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.45%, and the gross profit margin was 68.45%, a decrease of 2.76 percentage points. We speculate that the company’s production was limited by the Winter Olympic Games, resulting in the increase of costs. The company’s core product compound Danshen Dropping Pills has recovered steady growth in recent years, and the newly approved sugar net indications are expected to further expand the market space. The second-line varieties of Yangxue Qingnao, Qishen Yiqi and other products have a rapid growth rate, which is expected to maintain a rapid growth rate in 22 years. The company’s chemical medicine sector achieved an operating revenue of 319 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.79%, and the gross profit margin was 78.78%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.34 percentage points, mainly due to the impact of the price reduction of Tiqing centralized mining, the impact of Q2 will be further reduced, other products Shuilinjia maintained rapid growth, and the company’s liver disease treatment sector increased by 33.10%, mainly driven by Shuilinjia.
The biopharmaceutical sector continued to grow rapidly. The company’s biopharmaceutical sector achieved an operating revenue of 58 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.64%, and a gross profit margin of 71.84%, a year-on-year increase of 9.33 percentage points, mainly due to the increase of puyouke’s sales volume and the impact of scale effect. Puyouke’s new indications, acute stroke indications and acute pulmonary embolism have been applied for listing and accepted. It is expected to further increase the market space in the future.
Profit forecast: as the changes in the fair value of the company’s i-mab, Keji pharmaceutical and other financial assets have a great impact on the performance, we do not consider this impact temporarily. At the same time, we adjust the previous forecast. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 1.031 billion yuan, 1.176 billion yuan and 1.327 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 56%, 14% and 13%, and the corresponding PE will be 15x, 13X and 12x respectively. Maintain the company’s “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of slow progress of R & D pipeline Risks related to Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) biological spin off
