\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 57 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
Performance summary:
It was announced that in 2022q1, the revenue was 810 million, a year-on-year increase of 59%, the net profit was 150 million, a year-on-year increase of 85.7%, the net profit after deduction was 120 million, a year-on-year increase of 61.8%, and the performance in the first quarter was slightly higher than expected.
The company's performance in the first quarter was excellent. Focusing on the main brand "Winona", the products introduced the old and brought forth the new, and the brand awareness further increased. In terms of products, it is expected that the performance of single products such as special care cream and sunscreen will continue to be excellent, driving the beautiful sales performance during the e-commerce activities in March and driving the rapid growth of revenue in the first quarter.
In terms of channels, the public domain platform is still expected to be the main passenger flow entrance. The growth rate of tmall platform should be close to the overall growth rate. Gmv of new platforms such as Tiktok is growing rapidly, and "Winona" ranked top 10 in the sales of Duoyin beauty cosmetics in March; The self built platform has developed well, and the user scale and customer unit price are expected to increase steadily.
In terms of expenses, the expense rate in the reporting period remained high, with a year-on-year increase of 0.76 percentage points to 58.99%, mainly due to the increase of the company's image publicity and the salary of marketing personnel during the reporting period, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 2.1 percentage points to 48.02%.
In terms of cash flow, the investment in raw material procurement, brand publicity and e-commerce channels increased, resulting in a net cash outflow of 167 million from operating activities during the reporting period.
In the short term, affected by the domestic epidemic, there may be some pressure on e-commerce sales in the second quarter, but we believe that the demand will be deferred to subsequent quarters, and the performance is expected to maintain rapid growth throughout the year. In 2022, the company will continue to promote along the line of category innovation and brand circle expansion. The positioning of "Winona", "Winona baby" and "beauty answer" will be clear and perform their respective duties, and the influence and reputation of each brand will be further improved.
Maintain the profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit will be 1.18 billion and 1.55 billion respectively from 2022 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 37% and 31% respectively. The EPS will be 2.79 yuan and 3.67 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to 70 times and 54 times of PE respectively, maintaining the investment proposal of "interval operation".
Risk tip: the cost of getting customers increases, the brand improvement is less than expected, and the cost growth is higher than expected
