\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 799 Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) )
In 2022q1, the revenue was 2.132 billion yuan and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 270 million yuan
In 2022q1, the revenue was 2.132 billion yuan (YoY + 11.6%, Mom - 5.3%), the net profit attributable to the parent was 270 million yuan (YoY - 5.6%, mom + 27.8%), the gross profit margin was 22.4% (YoY - 3.8pct, mom + 6.0pct), and the net profit margin was 12.6% (YoY - 2.3pct, mom + 3.3pct). The profitability of the company has improved significantly month on month. It is expected that with the improvement of the epidemic situation, the steady resumption of work and production of downstream customers and the gradual release of orders in hand, the annual performance growth can be expected. We maintain the company's profit forecast for 20222024. It is estimated that the revenue in 20222024 will be 10.1/12.56/15.57 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.26/16.2/2.07 billion yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 27.6/21.5/16.8 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
FAW Group customers are greatly affected by the epidemic, and the company shows business resilience
According to the operating data released by the company from January to February 2022, the revenue from January to February was + 25% and the profit was + 5% year-on-year. It is speculated that the revenue and profit decreased significantly year-on-year in March, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic. In March, the epidemic situation in Jilin was relatively severe. The five factories in Changchun of FAW Group stopped production since March 13 and resumed work on April 11. FAW Volkswagen, FAW Toyota, FAW Hongqi, Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) , FAW cars are all important customers of Jilin Xingyu, and the production and sales losses in March were relatively serious (the output in March was - 45.9% / - 6.8% / - 73.0% / - 61.6% / - 64.5% respectively year-on-year). On March 21, the company announced that Changzhou factory was also affected by the epidemic, and the production and delivery of products were delayed. Assuming that the proportion of revenue and profit in 2021q1 from January to February 2021 is 2 / 3, it is estimated that the company's revenue and profit in March 2022 decreased by about 15.2% year-on-year and 26.8% year-on-year. It still shows a certain degree of business resilience under the adverse external environment. We expect that the lost output or deferred income from the epidemic in March is expected to be made up and recognized in the second quarter.
Customers continued to expand, with full orders on hand and accelerated overseas expansion
The company's lamp products continue to upgrade iteratively along the intellectualization, and customers have expanded to new forces and independent brands. In 2021, it will undertake new project orders of about 13.5 billion yuan, and new orders of about 4 billion yuan before March 15, 2022, which will gradually enter the high-volume period from the end of 2022. In addition, the company's Serbian plant 2022q2 was officially put into operation, and the overseas expansion process is expected to accelerate.
Risk tips: the mitigation of core shortage is not as expected, the sales volume of passenger cars is declining, the epidemic situation is repeated, etc.
