In December, the total amount of new social financing was 1.72 trillion (the previous value was 2.61 trillion). The stock of social finance increased by 10.3% year-on-year (the previous value was 10.1%), and continued to rebound. M2 increased by 9% year-on-year (previous value of 8.5%), M1 increased by 3.5% year-on-year (previous value of 3.0%), and continued to rise.
In December, social finance continued to rebound slightly year-on-year. Among them, corporate bonds and government bonds increased significantly year-on-year, but the entity financing has not improved significantly, the RMB loan is dragged down, and the non-standard end continues to converge. Among them, corporate bonds increased by 222.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 178.9 billion, and the value of government bonds in the current month was 1171.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 459.2 billion yuan, jointly supporting the year-on-year increase of social finance; RMB loans increased by 1130 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 130 billion. Non standard financing continued to converge, which was a drag on social finance.
M2 growth turned upward, and M1 growth continued to pick up. In December, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 continued to rise slightly from 8.5% to 9%, and the year-on-year growth rate of M1 continued to rise slightly from 3.0% to 3.5%.
Structurally, however, compared with the same period last year, except that the short-term loans of enterprises decreased year-on-year, other sub items fell, and the medium and long-term loans of residents weakened. Among them, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises continued to increase less for 6 months year-on-year, reflecting the weak demand for entity financing under the current rise in the price of upstream materials and the increasing difficulty of enterprise cash flow turnover. Despite the fine-tuning of multi local real estate policies, the residents' medium and long-term loans fell for the first time, and the residents' financing end is still waiting and watching, with strong prudence. On the margin, the follow-up policy is still expected to continue to overweight, and some loans planned to be launched in the first half of next year may be launched in advance to the second half of this year, so as to hedge the risk of credit stall, stabilize expectation management and help the soft landing of the real estate market.
It is expected that the growth rate of social finance and M2 will stabilize in the future and may rise in the future, but the range should not be expected too high in the environment of structural wide credit, which is limited to about 11% of social finance during the year (for details, please refer to moderate recovery: liquidity outlook in 2022). This month's debt issuance made a significant contribution and will also be the main contribution power for the follow-up. In the future, the government will speed up the issuance of government bonds and increase the support of credit to the real economy, especially small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, and the real estate regulation may be slightly relaxed (residents' medium and long-term loans). The adverse factor is the lack of motivation for the real financing demand led by the manufacturing industry (the medium and long-term loans of enterprises continue to fall).
The medium and long-term loans of enterprises continued to increase less year-on-year, reflecting the slowdown of production expansion under the cautious expectation of overseas supply side repair on the demand side, the obvious double squeeze of upstream cost squeeze on the profits of industrial enterprises on the supply side, and the investment prudence of industrial enterprises is still high.
From the marginal point of view, with the continued inclination of SME policies to the financing environment and the rebound of orders, the profit expectation is repaired or the operation of SMEs is improved. In the future, it will be the main driving force of structural credit easing, but the high inflation restricts the space for policy easing (for details, please refer to can credit easing be achieved: a resumption of credit cycle).
On the real estate side, real estate investment will decline in the medium and long term. However, as the most important sub item in the total economy, the rapid convergence of real estate may trigger systemic risks. The subsequent policy relaxation of real estate related credit and new construction or marginal relaxation will not change the policy setting, and stabilize the expectation management and exchange time for space within the cross cycle framework, Avoid systemic risks (such as problems in house delivery, unexpected decline in house prices in many cities, credit extension and cashing run, etc.).
On the infrastructure side, with the weakening of the high base effect and the Political Bureau meeting mentioned that the active fiscal policy should "improve efficiency" and promote the physical workload formed at the beginning of the year, the special bonds of local governments will accelerate in the first half of the year to provide support for the growth of social finance.
Risk tip: monetary policy is too tight, economic repair is less than expected, and credit risk.
