\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Events
The company released 20212022q1 results, showing that the revenue in 2021 was 19.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42.75%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.029 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 128.29%; Among them, the revenue of 21q4 was 2.714 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 24.93%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 435 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 1.83%; 22q1 revenue was 10.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43.62%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 70.03%
Key investment points
In 2021, the business revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 42.8% and 70.3% respectively. Among them, the business revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q4 decreased by 24.9% / – 1.83% respectively year-on-year, with a significant decline month on month. Therefore, the former company has better completed the tasks of the whole year, and 21q4 company actively controlled the goods under the heavy structure. The total revenue and net profit of 21q4 superimposed 22q1 company continued to increase rapidly while the channel remained healthy, indicating that the operation quality of the company was steadily improving. In terms of annual structure——
1) product end: the structure is significantly improved, and the blue and white series performs brilliantly. In 2021, the company’s revenue of Fen Liquor, series liquor and prepared liquor was 17.920 billion yuan, 637 million yuan and 1.25 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 41.9%, + 12.73% and + 91.39% respectively; The proportion of products changed from – 0.73%, – 0.87%, + 1.59% to 90.47%, 3.22% and 6.31% respectively year-on-year; The gross profit margin changed by + 3.10%, + 0.41%, – 3.33% to 76.55%, 53.1% and 63.71% respectively; The price per ton increased from + 10.44%, + 47.89%, + 19.61% to 138800, 58600 and 110500 yuan / ton respectively year-on-year.
2) market side: intensive cultivation within the province, accelerated development outside the province and high-quality development of channels. In 2021, the company’s revenue within and outside the province was 8.071 billion yuan and 11.738 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 34.60% and + 49.48% respectively, and the proportion changed by – 2.55%, + 2.55% to 40.74% and 59.25% respectively. The market outside the province accelerated its development. In 2021, the Fen Liquor Market increased to 22 billion yuan, and the sales of Zhuyeqing liquor in the southern core market increased by more than 120% year-on-year; The number of dealers outside the province increased by 30.5% year-on-year, and the number of controllable terminals increased to 1.05 million. The rapid development outside the province laid the foundation for subsequent operation. The number of dealers increased by 83 and 545 respectively, and the average income changed by + 19.26% and + 20.35% to 110857 million and 4.1981 million respectively.
3) financial side: the structure is upward and the expense rate is downward, which promotes the improvement of profit side. In 2021, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company changed by 2.76% and 4.72% to 74.91% and 26.99% respectively compared with the same period last year. The main reasons are: 1) the structure moved upward; 2) Decrease in expense rate: in 2021, the expense rate, sales expense rate and management expense rate of the company changed from – 2.07%, – 0.45%, – 1.95% to 21.61%, 15.82% and 5.96% respectively over the same period last year; Operating cash flow increased by 280.39% over the same period last year to 7.645 billion yuan; Contract liabilities increased by 4.269 billion yuan to 7.376 billion yuan over the same period last year.
22q1 revenue side performance meets expectations, profit side exceeds expectations
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) 22q1’s revenue side was in line with the expectation, and its profit side slightly exceeded the previous expectation. The main reason is that on the basis of the growth rate of blue and white series exceeding 50% in 21 years and the excellent performance in laobaifen Province, benefiting from the small impact of the epidemic in the main market, the superposition of medium and high price wines performed well:
1) high grade liquor, bright performance. In 2022q1, the company’s revenue of Fen Liquor, series liquor and prepared liquor was 9.873 billion yuan, 260 million yuan and 347 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 44.40%, + 118.31% and + 7.18% respectively; The proportion of products changed from + 0.29%, + 0.86%, – 1.14% to 94.20%, 2.48% and 3.31% respectively year-on-year. Specifically: 1) during the Spring Festival, the dynamic sales of blue and white series are strong, and the growth rate of Q1 blue and white Fen is expected to be 60% +, among which the growth rate of blue and white 30 revival version leads the whole series of products. Under the background of large volume of Spring Festival, the price of blue and white series is strong and the inventory is benign; 2) Relying on product upgrading + market expansion around Shanxi + benefiting from the excellent performance of the medium and high price band during the Spring Festival, laobaifen continued its high-speed development trend and contributed to its performance in March; 3) Bofen adopts the contract system throughout the year. At present, it is in the process of controlling quantity and stabilizing price. At present, the market has strong expectations for the replacement and price increase of Bofen.
2) regional end: the accelerated development trend outside the province continues, and the proportion increases. In 2022q1, the company’s revenue inside and outside the province was 3.854 billion yuan and 6.627 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of + 31.32% and + 52.49% respectively, and the proportion changed from – 3.54% and + 3.54% to 36.77% and 63.23% respectively. The quality of dealers continued to improve.
3) financial side: the profitability continues to rise and the ability of expense control is strong. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of 2022q1 company changed by + 1.22% and + 5.61% to 74.75% and 35.40% respectively compared with the same period last year; During the period, the expense rate, sales expense rate and management expense rate changed from – 7.35%, – 6.80%, – 0.62% to 13.71%, 11.15% and 2.63% respectively over the same period last year; Operating cash flow increased by 133601% over the same period last year to 3.539 billion yuan; Contract liabilities changed by 951 million yuan to 3.881 billion yuan compared with the same period last year.
Development direction: take the promotion of brand power as the first, and anchor the goal of “one third of the world”
Primary objective: brand promotion; Overall marketing plan: 133238. The company will achieve the primary goal of brand improvement through four “focus” + four “persistence”: 1) focus on market structure optimization, product structure optimization, quality optimization and management improvement; We will strengthen strategic focus, deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises and persist in strengthening risk management. In the next step, Fenjiu marketing will focus on the overall reform strategy of “133238” Fenjiu marketing, that is, anchoring one goal (“one in three places”), fighting three battles (key battle of marketing systematization construction; key battle of product structure adjustment; key battle of brand value promotion), building three markets (focusing on large base market, East China market and South China market) Promote two major projects (“1s + 3M + 6p” international marketing system, Xinghua village brand / personalized brand strategy building project), stick to three indicators (Qinghua Fen Liquor sales index, Qinghua 20 terminal index, Qinghua Fen Liquor opinion leader group index), and achieve eight adherences (including adhering to Party construction to lead marketing, cultivating executive combat team, information construction, dealer structure optimization, etc.), and work together to write the chapter of manufacturer cooperation, enterprise development A new chapter of brand rise.
Profit and valuation forecast
We believe that Fenjiu will benefit from the strong performance of Qinghua and the accelerated expansion outside the province. It is estimated that the revenue growth rate from 2022 to 2024 will be 35.6%, 31.7% and 29.0% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 46.7%, 38.4% and 31.7% respectively; EPS is 6.4, 8.8 and 11.6 yuan / share respectively; PE is 40, 29 and 22 times respectively. In the long run, the performance has strong growth, the current valuation is cost-effective, and the buy rating is maintained.
Catalyst: continuous consumption upgrading and smooth introduction of high priced products;
Risk tips: the second outbreak of epidemic in China has affected the overall dynamic sales of Baijiu; The sales of high-end liquor was less than expected; Management change risk
