\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 276 Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) )
Event: on April 26, 2022, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the total operating revenue was 138 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.27%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 17 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68.76%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 17 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69.05%.
The epidemic affected the decline in the sales of varicella vaccine, which is still expected to be flat throughout the year. 22q1 due to the superposition of local epidemics in Jilin, Shanghai and other places and the tightening of local prevention and control policies, the terminal sales of the company’s main varieties of varicella vaccine were blocked, and the superposition of R & D expenses led to large fluctuations in the company’s revenue and profit. It is expected that with the weakening of covid-19 vaccination run factor and the marginal improvement of local epidemic situation, chickenpox vaccine is still expected to be flat throughout the year, and nasal spray influenza is about to usher in a large amount in the second half of the year. Batch issuance: 25 batches of 22q1 varicella vaccine (- 34.21%)
R & D expenditure has decreased significantly and sales expenditure has increased significantly. 22q1 sales cost was 56 million yuan (- 41.32%), and the sales rate was 40.68% (+ 2.04pp). Covid-19 epidemic caused less terminal sales promotion; The management fee is 28 million yuan (- 5.53%), and the management rate is 20.14% (+ 8.26pp); Financial rate -3.33% (-3.12pp). The R & D cost was 28 million yuan (+ 63.51%), the R & D rate was 20.03% (+ 13.20pp), and the R & D expenditure of component DPT, nasal spray influenza liquid dosage form and whole human anti tetanus monoclonal antibody increased.
Herpes zoster has been declared for production and is expected to be listed in 2022. Herpes zoster vaccine is the largest single vaccine in the world. GSK’s live attenuated vaccine with blisters has sold for 2.57 billion US dollars in 20 years. In the context of deepening aging, with the increase of affordability and vaccination rate, we expect the market scale of herpes zoster vaccine in China to reach 7.6 billion in 2026. At present, only GSK is available in China in 2020, and Baike is expected to be listed in 2022, which is expected to win the first place among domestic manufacturers, with sales of ~ 3.4 billion in 2026
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: considering the impact of the epidemic on conventional vaccine terminal vaccination, we expect the company’s operating revenue to be 1.708 billion yuan, 2.324 billion yuan and 3.240 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024 (the pre forecast value is 2.052 billion yuan, 2.569 billion yuan and 3.205 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 42.10%, 36.03% and 39.44%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 443 million yuan, 637 million yuan and 910 million yuan respectively (the pre forecast value was 591 million yuan, 730 million yuan and 902 million yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 81.80%, 43.85% and 42.82%. As the leader of chickenpox vaccine, the company is expected to resume large-scale nasal spray influenza, contribute considerable increment to the expected listing of herpes zoster, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the R & D progress is lower than the expected risk, the sales of vaccine products do not meet the expected risk, and the risk of negative events in the vaccine industry; Covid-19 virus mutation leads to the risk of vaccine failure; The public materials used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update.
