Event:
On January 12, 2022, the central bank released the financial statistics for December 2021:
(1) m2 increased by 9% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than that at the end of November;
(2) M1 increased by 3.5% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than that at the end of November;
(3) RMB loans increased by 1.13 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 123.4 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.6%;
(4) the scale of social financing increased by 2.37 trillion, an increase of 720.6 billion year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over November.
Comments:
I. the credit supply in December continued the weak trend since November, showing the characteristics of "weak aggregate and poor structure"
In December 2021, RMB loans increased by 1.13 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 123.4 billion, continuing the year-on-year decrease in November.
In fact, looking back on Q4 in 2020, when the macro economy was in an upward recovery period and credit supply was "prosperous in both supply and demand", the central bank moderately increased the control of narrow credit lines to guide financial institutions to smooth credit supply, that is, there was a certain low base effect in Q4 credit data in 2020. RMB loans increased by 3.38 trillion in the quarter, accounting for 17.21%, It is 1.76 percentage points lower than Q4 in 2019.
In Q3 of 2021, with the increasing downward pressure on the macro economy, the central bank required financial institutions to increase their new RMB loans in 21q4 every month year on a year-on-year basis in the MPA assessment, and gave corresponding incentive measures according to the increase range, in order to guide the increase of credit, but the new RMB loans still increased less from November to December on a year-on-year basis, which reflects:
On the one hand, macroeconomic and market players are under significant pressure, and banks are facing the dilemma of "asset shortage". In recent months, the sporadic impact of the epidemic and the increasing pressure on the cash flow of real estate enterprises have put great pressure on the upstream and downstream small and medium-sized enterprises represented by the real estate industry chain. Enterprises have difficulties in survival, business expectations have deteriorated, capital expenditure is insufficient, the business vitality of some enterprises has decreased, and the requirements for ensuring the stability of market subjects have been improved. At the same time, near the end of the year, the start-up of infrastructure is insufficient, and the pressure of energy supply is still there, resulting in the dilemma of "asset shortage" of bank credit to the public, and the reserve of desirable projects is also relatively lacking. The data show that from November to December of 21 years, long-term corporate loans increased by 339.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 210.7 billion. The central bank's "rare" simultaneous reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates in December also highlights the dilemma of increasing downward pressure on the economy.
On the other hand, in the case of weak project reserves, banks prefer to provide credit at the "good start" time point in January. Due to the weakness of the bank's overall winter storage projects, considering the worry free KPI assessment in 2021 and the "good start" of credit in early 2022, most banks have no intention of excessive consumption of limited project reserves in December, pushing up year-end risk assets and putting pressure on liquidity supervision indicators, and prefer to adjust narrow credit indicators through transfer. The MPA assessment requires that the year-on-year increase in credit supply is not a "one vote veto". The bank also has its own economic demands. In addition, the insufficient effective demand of the real economy leads to the project reserve lower than the level of previous years, so the bank's willingness to provide credit is not strong.
Overall, the credit data in December of 21 continued the characteristics of "weak total amount and poor structure" in November, and the situation of insufficient project reserves and weak effective demand of the real economy may be further reflected in the credit supply since January, that is, under the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation, the credit supply is facing the pressure of "inertia downward". Further, it may lead to the evolution of credit supply from overall "good start" to divisional "differentiation" in early 2022, and the later "wide credit" needs further efforts from the policy side.
II. It is expected that in December of 21, the credit supply of large state-owned banks will still play a "head goose effect", the joint-stock banks are relatively weak, and the credit supply of unlisted small and medium-sized banks is expected to continue to weaken
This paper summarizes the credit supply structure in December of 21, showing three characteristics: ① structurally, the public is weak and the retail is stable; ② In terms of institutions, there are many large banks and few small banks; ③ In terms of timing, it falls at the beginning of the month and offsets at the end of the month. From the launch of different types of institutions:
It is expected that large state-owned banks still play a "head goose effect", but joint-stock banks are relatively weak. It is expected that the credit supply of large state-owned banks will still maintain a certain boom in December, and it is expected that the new loans are expected to increase year-on-year, but the joint-stock banks are relatively weak, the corporate loans of a few banks have a deep negative growth, and the boom of mortgage loans has declined marginally. In terms of urban commercial banks, it is expected that the credit supply of high-quality urban rural commercial banks located in developed areas of Jiangsu and Zhejiang will be stable and good in December, which is expected to increase year-on-year, among which the supply and demand of personal operating loans will be prosperous.
The financial risk of retail long tail customers has increased, resulting in the continuous weakening of the growth of non mortgage loans. Since Q4 of 2021, the operation pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises has increased, and the settlement of construction enterprises has slowed down, which has a certain impact on the long tail customer base. The risk of long tail customers began to be released, which reflected the potential pressure on income and employment of flexible employment groups, individual industrial and commercial households, employees of small and micro enterprises and migrant workers. Squeezed by the decline of bank risk appetite, the growth of Bank Retail non mortgage loans slowed down, and the credit supply also tended to be cautious. The data show that from November to December of 21 years, residents' short-term loans increased by 167.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 195.4 billion.
It is expected that the credit supply of unlisted small and medium-sized banks is weak. From November to December of the year, the number of new RMB loans increased slightly year-on-year, which was affected by the increasing downward pressure on the macro economy and the weak bank project reserves. At the same time, it was also dragged down by unlisted small and medium-sized banks to a certain extent. The customer base of such banks was relatively weak, most of them were weak qualified enterprises, greatly disturbed by the external environment and weak credit supply, From November to December, the credit supply of unlisted small and medium-sized banks may have increased significantly year-on-year.
III. short term loans to the public + false increase of bills, and the impulse is not reduced. Medium and long-term loans to the public are still weak
From the perspective of credit structure, the corporate credit structure performed poorly in December of 21. The short-term loan + bill inflated impulse remained unchanged, while the medium and long-term loan to the company was still weak:
On the one hand, banks meet the narrow credit indicators through bill transfer in the middle and early December. In the first ten days of December 2021, the central bank instructed commercial banks to increase credit. In the case of weak project reserves, banks began to offset through bills. This led to a sharp decline in the interest rate of cross-year notes, in which the 1m interest rate fell to near 0, and led to a synchronous decline in the long-term interest rate of 6m-1y. As Bill assets are a short-term tool for banks to flexibly adjust credit lines, and the sharp decline in the interest rate of 6m-1y bills means that some banks have acquired medium and long-term bills in the market, which will occupy the bank's narrow credit line for more than half a year, which also reflects the plight of such banks' weak reserves for public projects.
On the other hand, the impulse scale of corporate short-term loans in late December was not low, and the bill assets obtained the spread income through the reverse operation of "high selling and low absorbing". In late December, banks realized credit impulse through short-term corporate loans. The term of such loans was generally short, which was not the substantive and effective demand of enterprises, and faced centralized maturity after the next year. For bill assets, some banks obtain interest spread income through the reverse operation of "selling high and absorbing low". Behind the switching of credit impulse mode is the state of "zero interest rate" and "making money at a loss" for public and short-term loans, and the abnormal interest rate caused by bill discount due to narrow credit assessment can be corrected.
The data show that in December of 21, the bill discount scale was 1.84 trillion, the discount increased by 408.7 billion, an increase of 370 billion year-on-year, and the discount acceptance ratio was 69%, an increase of more than 11 percentage points year-on-year. The volume of undiscounted bills decreased by nearly 140 billion, reflecting an increase in ticket source consumption. In the last week of December, the bill discount acceptance ratio decreased to 54.26%, down more than 20 percentage points from the previous three weeks. The 1m state-owned bank transfer interest rate has risen to the normal range of 2.4-2.5%.
In addition, due to regulatory requirements in December of 21, some banks were faced with regulatory requirements for return of unqualified assets under the "new asset management regulations" and reduction of inter-bank receivables, which would increase the investment in corporate loans and occupy a certain narrow credit index.
IV. the margin of mortgage loan weakens, and development loan faces the double squeeze of "uneven hot and cold" and "insufficient demand"
In terms of mortgage loans, the medium and long-term loans of residents increased by 355.8 billion in December, an increase of 83.4 billion year-on-year and 226.3 billion month on month. Generally speaking, mortgage loans account for about 70-80% of residents\' medium and long-term loans. Therefore, it is estimated that mortgage loans will increase by 250-300 billion in December, while new mortgages from October to November will be 348.1 billion and 401.3 billion respectively, that is, the margin of mortgage loans will weaken in December. The reasons are partly related to the increase of mortgage loans from October to November, and the gradual consumption of the backlog of loan demand in the early stage; Part of it is related to the "two centralized" control of housing related loans still carried out by local regulators. From the perspective of institutional entities, it is expected that the mortgage loans of large state-owned banks have maintained a certain boom, but joint-stock banks and urban rural commercial banks have weakened.
In terms of development loans, on January 6, the CBRC disclosed at a press conference that as of the end of November 2021, real estate loans had increased by 8.4% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over October. Based on the estimation of the monthly housing mortgage loan increment and monetary policy implementation report disclosed by the people's Bank of China in the early stage, the new scale of real estate development loan in October and November 2021 was about - 40 billion and - 110 billion respectively, which has continued the negative growth trend since April 21. By the end of November, the growth rate of development loan had dropped to near 0, and the growth rate of mortgage loan was 11.5%. In November 2021, the growth rate of housing related loans rebounded, mainly contributed by mortgage loans, and the growth of development loans remained weak.
Recently, the regulatory authorities have been "increasingly friendly" towards real estate financing and encouraged the investment of development loans. In November 2021, it was rumored that the regulatory authorities required the development loans to "surface". We understand that the "surface" should be the balance increment ≥ 0, but this goal has not been achieved. At present, development loans are facing the double squeeze of "uneven hot and cold" and "insufficient demand". On the one hand, high-quality real estate enterprises have high capital availability and low financing cost, but the risk preference of the banking system has decreased, the business behavior shows obvious pro periodicity, the capital availability of weak qualified real estate enterprises has decreased significantly, and the recent negative growth trend of development loans has expanded from small and medium-sized banks to large banks. On the other hand, with the decline of operating rate, there are fewer housing development projects, and the overall capital demand is relatively weak.
In mid December 2021, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a document to encourage banks to invest in M & A loans. The issuance of M & A loans is not included in the management of housing related loans, the use of M & A loans and debt bearing acquisitions are not included in the "three red lines" management, and the dealers association encourages the issuance of M & A bonds. At present, some local governments actively coordinate and promote the project-side M & A of enterprises in their jurisdiction, but M & A is still an accidental event with more symbolic significance.
At present, the uncertainty of financing recovery of real estate enterprises is significantly higher than that of mortgage loans, and it is still difficult to "surface" in the short term. Stabilizing real estate sales in the next stage is a top priority. In the medium term, it is still necessary to reshape the cash flow of real estate enterprises under the "package" policy arrangement, prevent risk infection and realize the smooth implementation of the "guaranteed delivery" policy.
V. in December, the growth rate of social finance further rebounded, and the "supply dislocation" of government bonds was the main supporting factor
In December 21, social finance increased by 2.37 trillion, an increase of 720.6 billion year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate of social finance stock was 10.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared with November.
In terms of structure, the sub items of on balance sheet financing, non-standard and government bonds basically meet the market expectations. Among them, the net financing of government bonds increased by 1.17 trillion in December, an increase of 459.2 billion year-on-year, that is, the "supply dislocation" is the main supporting factor for the further rebound of social finance growth in December 21.
It is worth noting that corporate bonds continued to increase year-on-year in December. The data show that the net financing of corporate bonds in December 21 was 222.5 billion, an increase of 178.9 billion year-on-year.
From the perspective of products: in December, the net financing of corporate bonds + corporate bonds was 119 billion, an increase of 83.8 billion year-on-year. The net financing of zhongpiao + CP + SCP was - 45 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 246.5 billion. Among them, SCP net financing was - 68.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2030 billion, which was the main reason for the year-on-year increase in corporate bond net financing.
From the perspective of credit rating: in December, the net financing of AA + and above credit bonds was 30.7 billion, an increase of 212.1 billion year-on-year. Among them, the net financing of AAA credit bonds was - 64.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 144.4 billion. The net financing of AA and below credit bonds was 82.7 billion, an increase of 96.5 billion year-on-year.
Therefore, it can be seen that corporate bonds increased year-on-year in December 2021, which is mainly related to the low base effect after the exit of arbitrage funds in December 2020.
Vi. at the end of 2021, the centralized allocation of financial funds helped the recovery of M2 growth, and the scissors difference between M2 and M1 remained stable
In December of 21, M2 increased by 9% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than that in November. In terms of structure, general deposits (corporate + retail) increased by 3.26 trillion, an increase of 486.8 billion year-on-year. Fiscal deposits decreased by 1030.2 billion, an increase of 72.6 billion over the same period last year. This reflects that the centralized allocation of financial funds at the end of 2021 is conducive to the derivation of general deposits, which is the main reason for the recovery of M2 growth.
The year-on-year growth rate of M1 in December 21 was 3.5%, 0.5 percentage points higher than that in November. For two consecutive months, the scissors difference between M2 and M1 remained at 5.5 percentage points, unchanged from that in November. This also reflects that with the recent improvement of real estate financing situation, all kinds of financing represented by mortgage loans have been marginally improved in Q4 in 2021, and the cash flow pressure of real estate enterprises has been relieved, which is conducive to the stabilization and rebound of M1.
For the subsequent M1 growth rate: on the one hand, under the condition that the closed capital supervision is still strict and the development loan landscape is weak, the improvement of the available capital scale of real estate enterprises is relatively limited, indicating that there is little room for the rebound of the subsequent M1 growth rate. On the other hand, the Spring Festival in 2022 is at the end of January, and the year-end bonus will be paid in January, which will lead to the migration of corporate demand deposits to savings deposits, while the M1 base in January 2021 is relatively high (the Spring Festival is in the first ten days of February). Affected by this, the growth rate of M1 under the high base in January 2022 does not rule out a correction.
VII. Risk warning
The downward pressure on the macro economy has increased, and the credit easing is less than expected.
