\u3000\u30 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 16 Xin Hee Co.Ltd(003016) )
Event overview
In 2021, the company’s revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were RMB 2.102/2.87/275 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 15% / 61% / 59%, in line with the forecast. 21q4’s revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were RMB 595 million / 0.42 million / 0.38 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 2% / – 29% / – 35%, slowing down month on month. Q4’s single quarter profit decreased year on year and month on month, mainly due to the increase of single quarter sales and management expense rate and the provision of asset impairment loss. A cash dividend of 6 yuan will be distributed for every 10 shares, with a dividend rate of 7.4%. 22q1 income / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were 504 / 62 / 56 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 7% / 34% / 39%.
Analysis and judgment:
Affected by the epidemic, it slowed down significantly in the second half of the year. In 2021, the company’s self operated / e-commerce / distribution / other income was RMB 1.463/4.90/1.16/203 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 10% / 27% / 34% / – 23%, and an increase of – 3% / 85% / – 30% / – 11% compared with 19 years. By the end of 2021, the company had 496 stores (407 / 89 Direct stores / franchisees respectively) and 28 net closed stores (12 / 16 Direct stores / franchisees respectively). The net closing of Direct stores / franchisees was 3% / 15% year-on-year at the end of 21. It is estimated that the direct store efficiency / single store shipment in 2021 was 3.6/1 million respectively, an increase of 13% / 59% over the same period and 9% / – 6% over 19 years. The area of direct sales / franchise stores in 2021 is 177 / 117 ㎡ respectively. It is estimated that the direct sales efficiency / franchise single shipment in 21 years will be 20400 / 11100 yuan respectively. In 2021, tmall Gmv was RMB 233 million, with a year-on-year increase of 7%, a deduction of 13%, and a return rate of 57.16%. From the perspective of splitting 22q1, we estimate that the double-digit decline is affected by the epidemic offline, and the high single-digit growth is still achieved online under the condition of blocked logistics.
The gross profit margin decreased slightly, and the gross profit margin of e-commerce and distribution decreased significantly compared with that in 19 years. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 71.49%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.54pct; 22q1 gross profit margin was 69.66%, down 4.11pct year-on-year. In terms of splitting, only the direct gross profit margin increased year-on-year in 21 years, while the gross profit margin of e-commerce, distribution and other decreased. Among them, the gross profit margin of distribution decreased significantly: the gross profit margin of self-supporting / e-commerce / distribution / other was 78.18% / 56.47% / 49.39% / 66.96% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.24 / – 0.50 / – 14.31 / – 0.18pct.
The increase in net interest rate comes from fee control. The net interest rate in 2021 was 13.66%, a year-on-year increase of 3.94 PCT and 1.33 PCT higher than that in 19 years. The increase of net interest rate was mainly due to the decrease of expense rate. In 2021, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate was 42.29% / 7.66% / 3.43% / – 1.20% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -2.78/0.49/ -0.74/0.21pct, of which the management expense increased by 22.67% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of employee salary and share based payment.
The inventory was improved month on month and the structure was optimized. The company’s inventory in 21 years was 605 million yuan, a decrease of 14% compared with the beginning of the period, but an increase of 4% month on month. The inventory turnover days were 357 days, a year-on-year decrease of 107 days, mainly due to the company’s strengthening of inventory management in 21 years. From the perspective of inventory structure, at the end of the year 21, the proportion of inventories within 1 year / 1-2 years / 2-3 years / more than 3 years was 49% / 21% / 17% / 13% respectively, and the inventory structure was improved compared with that at the end of the year 20, accounting for 39% / 27% / 17% / 18% respectively at the end of 2020. In 2021, accounts receivable amounted to 194 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29% and 26% compared with 19 years. The turnover days of accounts receivable were 29 days, with a year-on-year increase of 0 days and 6 days compared with 19 years.
Investment advice
According to our analysis, (1) in the short term, the impact of the epidemic is still continuing, but once the epidemic improves and the proportion of direct sales of the company is high, it is expected to usher in greater profit elasticity; (2) At the expense side, the amortization of the headquarters building is about 30 million yuan this year. In the long run, there is still room for sub brands to open stores and improve store efficiency, online share and fee control.
Considering that Q1 performance was lower than expected, the revenue of 22 / 23 was reduced from RMB 2576 / 3031 million to RMB 2318 / 2829 million, the new 24-year revenue was RMB 3344 million, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 was reduced from RMB 384 / 458 million to RMB 301 / 392 million, the new 24-year net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 472 million, the EPS in 22 / 23 was reduced from RMB 0.89/1.06 to RMB 0.7/0.91, the new 24-year EPS was RMB 109, and the closing price on April 27, 2022 was RMB 8.16, corresponding to the PE of 22 / 23 / 24 was 12 / 9 / 7X respectively, Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Risk of aggravation of the epidemic; The risk of opening stores and improving store efficiency is lower than expected; Risks of inadequate design and insufficient supply chain management; Systemic risk.
