\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 461 Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) )
Event: the company disclosed the first quarterly report of 2022. 1q22 achieved a revenue of 870 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 71 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.4%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 59 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.3%. The performance is in line with expectations.
Key points supporting rating
Revenue grew steadily and profit margin decreased. (1) On the revenue side, the company’s revenue in the first quarter was + 12.8% year-on-year, which achieved a “good start” driven by sales growth and product structure upgrading. (2) On the profit side, the net profit attributable to the parent and net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent in the first quarter were + 1.4% and + 11.3% year-on-year respectively. Profit growth is slower than revenue growth. We judge that it is mainly caused by cost pressure. (3) 1q22’s gross profit margin was 40.4%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.9pct. We judged that the cost pressure caused by the rising price of raw materials was still on. At the same time, the company carried out promotional activities during the good start, which reduced the gross profit margin. 1q22 company’s sales / management / Finance / R & D expense rates were – 1.8pct, – 0.9pct, + 0.5pct, + 0.1pct respectively, and the overall expense rate decreased. 1q22 company’s net interest rate was 8.1%, year-on-year -0.9pct.
In the first quarter, beer sales increased and the product structure continued to be optimized. (1) In the first quarter, the company’s beer sales reached 234800 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 5.3%, better than the overall level of the industry (- 1.5%), and the company’s main sales area, South China market, was less affected by the epidemic. (2) The company’s product structure continued to be optimized. In the first quarter, the sales of pure draft beer accounted for 49.1%, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.4pct; 97. The sales volume of Chunsheng high-end core products reached 37500 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 50.4%. In addition, the canning rate was further improved. In the first quarter, the sales volume of canning products accounted for 38.0%, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.6pct.
Outlook: the epidemic situation and cost factors have brought short-term disturbances, and the high-end strategy is still the main line of growth. (1) In the short term, the rebound of the epidemic has a negative impact on beer consumption. We judge that the sales growth in the second quarter is under pressure, but the South China market is relatively less affected by the epidemic, and the sales growth of the company is expected to be better than the overall level of the industry. In addition, the prices of major raw materials such as barley and glass bottles remain high, and short-term cost pressures remain. (2) In the long run, high-end strategy is still the main line of growth. In terms of products, the company will continue to promote the high-end strategy, build a “3 + n” product portfolio of Xuebao + Chunsheng + Pearl River + characteristic products, and establish a diversified, high-end and characteristic brand image. In terms of channels, on the basis of consolidating traditional advantageous channels, the company will carry out reform and innovation in catering, night show, e-commerce and other channels to find new growth points. In terms of corporate governance, the company will use innovative management means to comprehensively improve the enterprise management ability and level and realize the improvement of operation efficiency. We believe that the company has a solid foundation in the South China market and basically has a good overall orientation. We are optimistic about the continuous and steady growth of the company’s revenue and profit.
Valuation
According to the first quarterly report, we adjusted the previous profit forecast and expected EPS of 0.30, 0.33 and 0.35 yuan in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.2%, + 8.0% and + 7.6%, maintaining the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the price of raw materials fluctuated, and the high-end was less than expected.
