\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 539 Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) )
The business boom of phosphorus, compound fertilizer and United alkali was upward, the company’s Q1 performance increased year-on-year, and maintained the “buy” rating
According to the company’s announcement, Q1 company achieved an operating revenue of 5.518 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of + 87.03%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 465 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 157.59% and a month on month increase of + 3.14%. In Q1 2022, the sales volume of the company’s compound fertilizer products increased year-on-year; The sales price of soda products increased year-on-year, and the gross profit margin increased year-on-year; The sales price of phosphorus chemical products increased year-on-year, and the gross profit margin increased year-on-year. The main business is booming and the profitability is rising. The Q1 performance of the company has increased year-on-year and month on month. We maintain the company’s profit forecast for 20222024. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 1.836 billion, RMB 2.273 billion and RMB 2.442 billion respectively, and the EPS will be RMB 1.82 million, RMB 2.25 million and RMB 2.42 per share respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 7.5, 6.1 and 5.6 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The prices of phosphorus chemical, combined alkali and compound fertilizer products continued to rise, and the company’s Q1 performance increased year-on-year
According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, in Q1 2022, the average market price of yellow phosphorus was 33003 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 99.78%; The average prices of light alkali and ammonium chloride were 2449 and 1719 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 42.45% and + 50.00% respectively. The company has an annual production capacity of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of yellow phosphorus and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of combined alkali, which fully benefits from the rise in the prices of yellow phosphorus and combined alkali products. Affected by rising food prices and international conflicts, the price of chemical fertilizer outside China increased year-on-year. The average price and year-on-year variation range of Q1 monoammonium phosphate, urea, potassium chloride and compound fertilizer were 3090 (+ 23.60%), 2657 (+ 28.83%), 3668 (+ 59.88%) and 2942 (+ 36.82%) yuan / ton respectively. As a highly integrated leader of compound fertilizer, the company fully benefited. The company’s business blossomed at many points, and its performance in a single quarter hit another record high.
In the 14th five year plan, the company will arrange three new projects, including compound fertilizer and new materials, and its future performance is expected to continue to increase
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the company will lay out three major projects in Hubei. (1) Jingzhou, Hubei: it is estimated to invest 4.595 billion yuan to build 350000 tons of battery grade iron phosphate, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of slow and controlled release compound fertilizer and related supporting capacity; (2) Yingcheng, Hubei: it is estimated to invest 7.5 billion yuan to build new production capacity, including annual output of 1 million tons of compound fertilizer and 700000 tons of synthetic ammonia; (3) Yicheng, Hubei: the investment in fixed assets is about 2.15 billion yuan. It will build an annual output of 100000 tons of battery grade iron phosphate project, 800000 tons of slow and controlled release compound fertilizer project and related supporting capacity. The total investment of the three major projects may exceed 14.25 billion yuan. The company will build projects through fixed growth, capital rolling after capacity investment and its own funds. Its future performance is expected to continue to increase, and it is optimistic about the great potential of the company’s growth.
Risk tips: the construction progress of the project is less than expected, the product price has fallen sharply, the macro-economy has declined, etc.
