\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 48 He Bei Cheng De Lolo Company Limited(000848) )
Event: the company released the first quarter report of 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 1.118 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.95% and a month on month increase of + 66.86%; The year-on-year performance of the parent company was + 1.92 billion, with a net profit of + 1.09 billion, in line with the parent company’s expectation.
The deep cultivation of channels and the improvement of governance have boosted the further growth of revenue. On the revenue side, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 1.118 billion in 22q1, a year-on-year increase of + 14.95% and a month on month increase of + 66.86%. We believe that the company’s 22q1 revenue growth mainly comes from the company’s 21-year management transformation, comprehensively improving the company’s organizational structure and governance system, improving the internal comprehensive management level and promoting the introduction of talents; Second, the company continues to promote the deep cultivation of existing channels, strengthen the development of blank market and blank channels, and further expand the market; Third, the company’s products have the attribute of gifts. We believe that the gift giving scene in the Spring Festival will boost Q1’s performance. Looking forward to the whole year, with the continuous R & D and launch of the company’s new products, the company will further explore the markets in East China and southwest China, strengthen e-commerce operation, realize new market development, continue to tap the existing advantageous market potential, improve the product market rate and the number of terminal outlets, promote the development of blank channels, and focus on the development of campus, station, banquet, catering and group purchase channels. It is expected to continue to achieve rapid growth throughout the year.
The improvement of cost-effectiveness is expected to maintain the profitability, and the channel is widened to deal with the cost pressure. On the profit side, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 235 million yuan in 22q1, a year-on-year increase of + 11.19% and a month on month increase of + 39.10%; The gross profit margin was 46.81%, year-on-year -4.05pcts and month on month -1.46pcts; The net interest rate was 21.04%, year-on-year -0.70pcts and month on month -4.07pcts. Profits fell month on month, mainly due to the increase in operating costs caused by the rise in the cost of raw material tinsector. The company’s 22q1 sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates were 16.99% / 1.02% / 0.54% / – 0.76% respectively, with a year-on-year change of – 2.23 / – 1.24 / + 0.10 / + 0.13pcts and a month on month change of + 3.50 / – 0.91 / – 0.15 / + 0.79pcts. We believe that the change of expense rate is mainly due to the increase of marketing expenses due to the company’s strengthening the exposure of brand products and opening up new markets; At the same time, the management level and governance mechanism of the company were improved, and the management expenses decreased. Looking forward to the whole year, we expect that the cost side and the cost of tinsector may rise further, and the company may deal with the pressure on the cost side by locking the price of raw materials; On the expense side, with the launch of the company’s new products, the investment of sales expenses may be increased, but with the expansion of the overall sales scale, the profitability is expected to maintain a stable trend.
Intensive market development, expansion of consumption scene and expansion of consumption level open up long-term space. In the past 21 years, the company’s management improvement and channel reform have been gradually promoted. In the past 22 years, it is expected to further release the potential energy of reform on the basis of 21 years. 1) continue to promote the deep cultivation of the existing market and increase market development; 2) The new low sugar version meets the taste needs of Southern consumer groups, and carries out investment promotion and distribution in new markets; The quality of almond + and almond milk series is upgraded to meet diversified consumer demand. We expect the company to achieve double-digit growth throughout the year. In the long run, we believe that the value improvement of the company mainly comes from the gift giving positioning of the company’s categories from small scenes to daily consumption positioning. The expansion of the overall consumption level opens up long-term space and is optimistic about the future development of the company.
Profit forecast: we maintain the previous profit forecast of the company. It is estimated that the company’s revenue in 22-24 years will be RMB 3.037/36.034182 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20.34% / 18.63% / 16.07%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 647778/923 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 13.61% / 20.22% / 18.71% and EPS of 0.60/0.72/0.86 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk warning: the product structure is relatively single, the development of the southern market is less than expected, and the impact of the epidemic situation.
