\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 078 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) )
Event overview
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022. During the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 9.667 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.48%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 675 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.08%; The non net profit deducted was 658 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.22%. In terms of cash flow, the net cash flow from operating activities was 1.035 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.55% over the same period last year, mainly due to the significant increase in cash paid for purchasing goods and receiving labor services in the current period over the same period last year and the year-on-year increase in cash paid to and for employees.
Analysis and judgment:
Revenue side: the release of new production capacity led to rapid growth in revenue, and the Nanning project of Guangxi base was officially launched
In Q1 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 9.667 billion yuan, an increase of 26.48% year-on-year and 16.73% month on month. The increase in revenue was mainly due to the release of the company's new production capacity during the reporting period, resulting in a year-on-year increase in the company's product sales revenue and sales volume. The monthly average prices of the company's main products, double offset paper, in January, February and March 2022 were 564226 yuan / ton, 577578 yuan / ton and 616902 yuan / ton respectively. It can be seen that the price trend is improving. We expect that the double offset paper market in May will also improve to a certain extent compared with April. The company's Guangxi base plans to invest in the construction of 150000 tons of household paper project. In the first phase, four domestic 2850 household paper machines are added, with a design annual capacity of 100000 tons. It is planned to be completed and put into operation in the second half of 2022. At the same time, Nanning sun completed the handover of the acquisition of the assets of Guangxi Liujing Chengquan Investment Co., Ltd. the main assets of Guangxi Liujing Chengquan Investment Co., Ltd. include plant equipment (150000 tons of pulp and 200000 tons of paper per year), nearly 2000 mu of industrial land, energy consumption indicators, etc. the completion of asset handover marks the official launch of the "Forest Pulp paper integration" project in Nanning, Guangxi base of the company.
Profit side: the profit margin has been repaired month on month
On the profit side, in Q1 2022, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 13.97%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.47 PCT and a month on month increase of 4.07 PCT; The company achieved a net interest rate of 6.99%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.55pct and a month on month increase of 4.70pct. The year-on-year decline in profit margin is mainly due to the fact that the price of bulk materials in this period is much higher than that in the same period last year. On the expense side, in Q1 2022, the company's expense rate during the period was 6.16%, an increase of 0.67pct year-on-year. Among them, the sales / management / financial expense rates were 0.40%, 2.52% and 1.33% respectively, with year-on-year changes of 0.01, 0.41 and -0.75pct. The increase in the management fee rate is mainly due to the year-on-year increase in the amortization of equity incentive costs of the company and the increase in the production capacity of new projects in Guangxi base, resulting in the simultaneous increase of sewage treatment fees. The R & D expenditure of the company increased to 1pct.91% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of R & D expenditure in the current period.
Investment advice
We believe that with the launch of the company's own wood pulp production capacity, the pulp cost of the company's paper products has been effectively reduced, while the rebound in the price of cultural paper and the launch of the company's new production capacity can also increase the company's revenue, and the company's profitability is expected to continue to improve month on month. We maintain the company's profit forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 22-24 years will be 363.75/385.23/41.669 billion yuan, EPS will be 1.20/1.27/1.37 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 11.87 yuan / share on April 28, 2022, and PE will be 9.86/9.32/8.66 times respectively, maintaining the company's "buy" rating.
Risk tips
1) the demand for cultural paper fell sharply. 2) Too much new capacity in the industry has led to a decline in the price of the company's products.
