1.1.2021 performance review: the sector underperformed the market and fluctuated upward in the second half of the year
Since 2021, the overall performance of securities companies' index has been weaker than the market. From the perspective of relative returns, since 2021, brokerage stocks have achieved a relative return of 1.2% relative to CSI 300, and there is no relative return relative to gem. After Q3, due to loose liquidity, it is expected to fluctuate upward as a whole.
We think the reasons behind it may come from: 1) market style switching, hot theme speculation and grabbing market attention; 2) Macroeconomic uncertainty has increased, and the momentum of future economic growth is insufficient; 3) Real estate risk landmark events impact financial stability and confidence
\u3000\u30001.2. Performance of individual stocks: the main line of wealth management and individual stocks deduce the market
From the performance of individual stocks, individual wealth management stocks ran out of positive returns. This year, in addition to CAIDA of secondary new shares, GF, Dongcai, Dongfang, Xingye and great wall are the main wealth management stocks, and Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) and Shenwan, the subject of the Beijing stock exchange, have a positive increase.
From the perspective of individual stock valuation, the valuation of secondary new shares and characteristic securities companies is high, and the current valuation of secondary new securities companies CICC and China Construction Investment Co., Ltd. exceeds 3xpb; The valuation of China stock market news, an Internet brokerage, is far ahead, reaching 9.8xpb; CITIC, a leading brokerage, is currently valued at 1.8xpb, which is at the 68% quantile in the past three years
\u3000\u30001.3. Review of the first three quarters: high performance and improved profit margin
High performance growth: in the first three quarters, 41 listed securities companies achieved a total operating revenue of 469.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23%, accounting for 90% of last year; The total net profit attributable to the parent company was 148.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23%, surpassing the level of 146.1 billion yuan last year.
The profit margin continued to improve: the profit margin was 32%, the roe reached 7.6%, and the annualized profit margin reached 10.1%, second only to the level in 2015.
\u3000\u30001.3. Review of the first three quarters: the asset scale continued to expand and the leverage ratio reached the peak
Asset scale continued to expand: as of September 30, 2021, the total asset scale of 41 listed securities companies reached 10.3 trillion, up + 15% from the end of last year; The scale of net assets was 2.0 trillion, up + 9% from the end of last year. At the same time, customer assets grew rapidly, up + 24% to 2.1 trillion compared with the end of last year.
Leverage ratio continued to increase: as of September 30, 2021, the leverage ratio of listed securities companies reached 4 times, the highest level in history.
\u3000\u30001.3. Review of the first three quarters: self operated and brokerage account for the highest proportion, and asset management has the fastest growth rate
Proprietary trading and brokerage accounted for the highest proportion: in the first three quarters, proprietary trading and brokerage contributed 26% and 23% of operating revenue respectively, and credit, investment banking and asset management contributed 10%, 9% and 7% respectively.
Asset management, brokerage and self operation grew the fastest: in the first three quarters, asset management, brokerage and credit business increased by + 24%, + 19% and + 15% respectively, and self operation and investment banking increased by + 10% and + 1% respectively.
\u3000\u30001.3. Review of the first three quarters: the concentration remained upward, and the head pattern was relatively stable
Increase in revenue concentration: in the first three quarters, the operating revenue Cr5 and CR10 of 41 listed securities companies were 62% and 38%, respectively 1.73pct and 2.37pct higher than that in 2020.
Increase in net profit attributable to parent company Cr5: in the first three quarters, the net profit attributable to parent company Cr5 was 41% and CR10 was 67%, respectively 1.42pct higher and 0.81pct lower than that in 2020.
Stable head structure: CITIC, Haitong, Guojun, Huatai and GF have maintained the top 5 performance since 2016.
