\u3000\u3000 Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) (002960)
Event: Bluebird released a performance forecast. In 2021, it is expected that the revenue will be 3.7 ~ 4.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 46.6% ~ 66.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 485 ~ 555 million, with a year-on-year increase of 12.8% ~ 29.1%; In the fourth quarter alone, the expected revenue was 1.124 ~ 1.624 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33% ~ 92%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 110 ~ 180 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% ~ 68%.
Core view: performance exceeds expectations. Previously, we estimated that the company’s revenue in 2021 was about 3.6 billion and the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 450 million. The reasons for exceeding expectations are mainly concentrated on the revenue side, including the promotion of internationalization strategy and the continuous volume of new business. Looking forward to 2022, on the one hand, with the simultaneous development of cost reduction, efficiency increase, refined internal control and other measures, the inflection point of profit margin appears; On the other hand, with the successive implementation of management policies and product R & D, energy storage fire protection is expected to usher in the first year of development, contribute new performance increment and maintain the “Buy-A” rating.
In terms of business, the company has formed four business segment structures to jointly promote performance growth:
(1) the general fire service grew steadily, and the international layout promoted the continuous expansion of business scale. In 2021, while increasing the market share in China, the company steadily promoted its internationalization strategy, completed the acquisition and integration of finsecur, France, and achieved overseas market coverage in Canada, France, Spain and the United States.
(2) the emergency evacuation business achieved explosive expansion, with a year-on-year increase of more than 200%. The company has completed multi brand layout, including Bluebird main brand, left direction and Zhongke Zhichuang. According to the company’s announcement, the company’s emergency evacuation revenue will reach 180 million in 2020. According to our judgment, the revenue volume of this sector is expected to reach 540 million in 2021.
(3) the industrial field has achieved a breakthrough from 0 to 1, and energy storage fire fighting is expected to become a new performance growth point. In 2021, the company made great efforts to improve the industrial product system and channel construction, and successfully won many industrial fire-fighting projects. At present, the company has formed the industrial layout of large industrial fire electronics, including: ① traditional industrial industries (iron and steel, petroleum and petrochemical, metallurgy, etc.); ② Pan industrial industry (rail transit, tunnel, etc.); ③ Emerging fields (such as energy storage power plants, distributed photovoltaic projects, etc.). Pan industry and emerging fields are superior to traditional industries in terms of project value and industrial growth, especially the energy storage industry. With the accelerated implementation of downstream projects and the overweight of fire management policies, the industrial demand is forced to upgrade. 2022 is expected to be the first year of energy storage and fire protection, bringing new revenue growth points to the company.
(4) in the field of intelligent fire protection, the company has implemented several intelligent fire protection solution projects covering many places across the country. Closely following the trend of integration of fire safety and materials in the industry, the company completed the construction of projects such as Bank of Guizhou, Shengli Oilfield Central Hospital and Beijing tanzhesi in 2021, realizing the supporting application of intelligent fire fighting platform.
Looking forward to 2022, the company’s revenue will continue to grow and is expected to usher in a profit inflection point: ① revenue side: the general field has strong structural growth power due to new growth and coexistence of stock market; At the same time, the company has arranged the emergency evacuation section and actively entered the field of industrial fire protection and household fire protection. Under the policy east wind, the company is still in the period of rapid expansion of scale. ② Profit side: in terms of gross profit margin, considering the optimization of competition pattern and product structure and the cost reduction effect of “Crested Ibis” chip, the company’s gross profit margin is expected to stabilize at about 40%; In terms of net interest rate, the initial investment (products, teams and channels) of new business layout has been basically completed. In the future, refined internal control will improve per capita energy efficiency. It is expected that the sales expense rate will show a downward trend. The amortization of equity incentive expenses has been completed by about 67%, and the pressure on management expense rate is relieved, which is expected to reduce by about 1PCT. In general, it is expected that the company’s net interest rate is expected to exceed 14% in 2022, an increase of about 1PCT year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 3.772 billion, RMB 5.072 billion and RMB 6.685 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 49.4%, 34.5% and 31.8% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 501 million, RMB 724 million and RMB 1.022 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.4%, 44.6% and 41.1% respectively. EPS is 1.44, 2.08 and 2.93 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 32, 22 and 16 times respectively. Maintain the “Buy-A” rating, and the six-month target price is 62.36 yuan.
Risk warning: market competition intensifies; The expansion of emergency evacuation market is less than expected; Business expansion in the industrial field is less than expected; The collection is less than expected, resulting in an increase in bad debts; Poor management of major shareholders has dragged down listed companies.
