\u3000\u3000 Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) (300782)
Event: on January 11, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.050-2.157 billion in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 91.09% - 101.06%; The company estimates that the impact of non recurring profits and losses on net profit is about 196 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent after deducting non recurring profits and losses is 1.854-1.961 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 80.02% - 90.42%.
21q4 returned to the upward trend, and the annual performance was in line with expectations: previously, the company's performance was affected by the weakness of smart phones in the short term, and 21q4 performance returned to the positive growth trend, that is, Q4 is expected to achieve a parent net profit of 523-630 million yuan in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 47.17% - 77.29% and a month-on-month increase of 1.99% - 22.86%. Throughout the year, the company's performance in 21 years achieved rapid growth year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the incremental market demand for RF front-end products generated by the development of 5g communication technology and the company's advantageous layout in supply chain management.
Relay driven growth of RF discrete devices and receiver modules: RF discrete device products are the company's traditional advantageous products, with rich product models, which are suitable for a variety of application scenarios. Their technical maturity and product coverage are leading in the industry and have sufficient market competitiveness. Based on the experience and advantages of RF front-end products over the years and combined with the market application requirements, the company has iteratively upgraded the RF front-end discrete device product series to achieve further volume. On the basis of continuously consolidating RF discrete devices, the company promotes the marketization process of RF module products. With the advantages of good product performance, sufficient and stable supply and delivery capacity, lfem, lnabank and diffem, the company's receiver module products, have been rapidly loaded and continuously penetrated at the client, promoting the steady development of the business. Xinzhuo semiconductor industrialization project is progressing smoothly, and the self built filter IDM production line will provide support for the large-scale production of difem.
Forward looking layout of transmitter modules and laying the foundation for a platform type RF front-end leading company: the company actively layout transmitter RF module products. Based on the previous experience and accumulation in RF module technology and technology, the company successfully launched the main transmitter module product l-pamif (integrated PA, RF switch, LNA and filter) applied to 5gnr band, and has begun to promote sample delivery. Among them, the power amplifier adopts GaAs process and the filter adopts IPD process. The transmitter module products will strengthen the company's technical barriers and leading advantages in RF front-end chips, form a good pattern of coordinated development of multiple products for the future, and lay the foundation for the company's comprehensive layout of RF front-end product platform.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.886 billion yuan, 6.841 billion yuan and 8.893 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.115 billion yuan, 2.951 billion yuan and 3.715 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 6.34 yuan, 8.85 yuan and 11.14 yuan respectively, corresponding to 50 times, 36 times and 28 times of PE respectively, maintaining the "Buy-A" investment rating.
Risk warning: the downstream demand is less than expected, and the domestic substitution process is less than expected.
