\u3000\u3000 Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689)
Core view
The company issued the performance forecast for 2021, and the performance met the expectations: in 2021, the company is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.05-1.15 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 67.1% - 83.1%; 4q21 is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 300-400 million, with a year-on-year increase of 17.3% - 56.8% and a month on month increase of 1.0% - 35.1%.
The 4q21 expansion strategy is accelerated and has sufficient momentum for medium-term development. 1) Accelerated production capacity: 4q21 company has successively completed air suspension plant (one), suspension system plant (five) and aluminum subframe plant (the second and third plants). In 2022, the company will have sufficient new production capacity; 2) Overweight Chongqing: in December, the company signed an agreement with Shapingba District People's Government of Chongqing, and plans to invest about 1.5 billion yuan within five years to meet the rapidly growing order demand of new energy customers in Southwest China, especially in Chongqing. The implementation of the project can improve service response speed, enhance customer stickiness and effectively reduce product production and transportation costs; 3) Promote the issuance of convertible bonds: on November 20, the company issued a plan for raising convertible bonds (currently accepted by the CSRC), which plans to raise no more than RMB 2.5 billion and invest in the construction of 4.8 million lightweight chassis systems.
Adhere to tier0 5 positioning, continuous category expansion and deep excavation of customer value. 1) Continuously enrich the product line: in terms of thermal management, the company has successfully developed integrated heat pump assembly, electronic expansion valve, electronic water valve, electronic water pump, gas-liquid separator and other products, and the supporting amount of single vehicle reaches 6000-9000 yuan (1h21 thermal management revenue accounts for 12%); In terms of braking by wire, after completing the product research and development of ibspro, the company will successively launch ibs-evo and ibs-red redundant braking schemes to reduce cost, reduce weight and increase efficiency on the basis of ibs-pro products; 2) Serve global customers. The company's customers include global vehicle manufacturers such as Tesla, GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen, Audi, Honda and Toyota, as well as head independent brands such as Geely. At the same time, the company actively cooperates with new forces of head car manufacturing such as rivian (the supporting value of single car is 11000), Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal to explore tier0 Level 5 cooperation model.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of 11.04 billion yuan, 14.05 billion yuan and 17.63 billion yuan in 2021, 2022 and 2023, corresponding to net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.12 billion yuan, 1.51 billion yuan and 2.1 billion yuan. Based on today's closing price, PE is 51.5 times, 38.2 times and 27.4 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the progress of product development iteration and mass production is less than expected, the mitigation degree of chip shortage is less than expected, and the rise of raw material cost is more than expected
