\u3000\u3000 Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) (300782)
Event overview
The company issued the annual performance forecast for 2021. During the reporting period, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company of RMB 205 million ~ 2157 million, an increase of 91.09% ~ 101.06% over the same period of the previous year.
Analysis and judgment:
Continue to promote the improvement and upgrading of product lines, and China has obvious leading advantages
According to the 2021 annual performance forecast released by the company, the company focuses on the forward-looking R & D layout and continues to promote the improvement and upgrading of the product line. Benefiting from the incremental market demand for RF front-end products generated by the development of 5g communication technology, combined with the company's advantageous layout in supply chain management, the company's operating performance increased significantly over the previous year. The company's traditional advantageous product - RF discrete device products achieve further volume through continuous upgrading and rapid iteration; The company's new product - RF module products at the receiving end, with the advantages of good product performance, sufficient and stable supply and delivery capacity, has rapidly increased the volume and continued to penetrate at the client, promoting the steady development of the business. During the reporting period, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company of RMB 205 million ~ 2157 million, an increase of 91.09% ~ 101.06% over the same period of the previous year. The impact of non recurring profits and losses on the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the company is about RMB 196306100. The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non recurring profits and losses is expected to be RMB 1853693900 ~ 1960693900, In the first three quarters of 2021, the company realized a net profit of 1507.3671 million yuan, and it is expected to realize a net profit of 346.3268 million yuan to 453.3268 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2021. Compared with the net profit of 513.4123 million yuan in a single quarter of the third quarter of 2021, the company decreased in the fourth quarter of 2021, The main reason is that in the first few quarters of this year, downstream customers established a certain inventory for the safety of the supply chain. In the face of poor performance of downstream shipments, the periodic disturbance caused by de inventory. For the future growth of the company, we still maintain several major judgments: 1. The market scale of RF track is large enough, and the penetration rate of 5g mobile phones continues to increase. According to yole's prediction, by the end of 2021, the market scale of RF front-end will increase from US $14 billion in 2020 to US $17 billion, and it is expected to reach US $21.67 billion by 2026; 2. The domestic penetration rate is still very low, which brings upward flexibility. Taking China's RF leader Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) as an example, the company achieved a total revenue of 3.484 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2021. According to the prospectus of RF manufacturer Weijie innovation, Weijie innovation is expected to achieve an operating revenue range of 340 million yuan to 355 million yuan in 2021, Compared with qorvo, a large US funded RF manufacturer, with an operating revenue of nearly 26.36 billion yuan in 2020, Chinese RF manufacturers still have a lot of room for growth; 3. Under the development trend of RF front-end modularization, the ability to ship modules is the core means to seize the medium and high-end market and seize the source of market profits. RF front-end modules involve relatively many devices, which vary according to the complexity of modules, but they are inseparable from RF PA, filter, LNA, RF switch and other devices as a whole, Different devices have different technical paths and production processes, and the corresponding supply chain systems are also different. Therefore, the design and production of RF front-end modules are very difficult, that is, they are inseparable from the company's R & D and design ability and the company's supply chain integration ability. Therefore, Chinese manufacturers with the ability to ship modules are very scarce, Moreover, the RF module has a high entry threshold. Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) as one of the few Chinese enterprises with full category layout at the RF front end and real mass production and shipment at the module end, the first mover advantage is obvious, and the company is still promoting the improvement and layout of the product line, which has a very strong competitive strength; 4. IC design enterprises are inseparable from production capacity, especially the production processes involved in RF front-end chips are relatively diversified. Whether through industrial chain integration or self built production lines, it takes a certain period to complete the layout. At present, from the perspective of RF front-end supply system, the resources of RF PA OEM all over the world have a certain scale, However, the OEM resources of the filter are relatively scarce. As the core device of the RF front-end, the filter is also an important part of the RF module, Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) solves the capacity bottleneck through the self built production line. At present, the self built production line is progressing as planned. We believe that a new growth curve of the company is about to appear. It is expected that after the self built production line of the filter realizes mass production, The company's revenue volume is expected to enter a new growth period and is firmly optimistic about the medium and long-term development momentum of the company.
Investment advice
Maintaining the previous forecast, the company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 5.003 billion, RMB 7.255 billion and RMB 9.542 billion respectively from 2021 to 2023. The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 2.066 billion, RMB 3.067 billion and RMB 3.863 billion respectively from 2021 to 2023, with corresponding EPS of RMB 6.19, RMB 9.19 and RMB 11.58 respectively, corresponding to the closing price of RMB 303.90 on January 12, 2022, PE was 49.08 times, 33.05 times and 26.24 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downturn, systemic risk; The intensification of industry competition leads to the rapid decline of product prices; 5g terminal shipments were significantly lower than expected; New product introduction is not as expected
