\u3000\u3000 Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) (300737)
Events
Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) release the performance forecast for 2021. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is expected to be 630-800 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.24% ~ 10.15%; The net profit after deducting non-profit was 570-740 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.66% ~ 16.48%. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 in a single quarter is expected to be -43-127 million yuan, compared with 316 million yuan in the same period last year.
The operating profit margin of Q4 is expected to be close to Q3, and the impairment will drag down the overall profit
We expect the company’s Q4 revenue to increase slightly on a month on month basis. Considering that the average price of Q4 asphalt and other raw materials is close to Q3, we judge that the company’s gross profit margin / operating profit margin is relatively stable on a month on month basis. The large single provision for accounts receivable may have a significant impact on profits. It is estimated that the amount of impact is more than 100 million, but the company’s operation is stable and there are few high-risk customers, The estimated impairment is mainly due to policy prudence and the actual risk is small.
It is expected to continue to maintain good revenue growth and profit margin or margin recovery in 22 years
21h2 waterproof industry is affected by the sharp decline of new real estate construction. We judge that the recovery of follow-up real estate policies is expected to gradually transform to the fundamental side. From 22q2, the front-end data of real estate or hit the bottom. At the same time, the new waterproof regulations are approaching the ground, and the rapid growth of roof photovoltaic is also expected to bring new increment. The company remains at the forefront of the industry in terms of its own channel and category expansion. It is expected that the revenue growth rate in 22 years is expected to maintain a high level of about 30%, and the scale effect at the cost side is expected to be gradually reflected. If the subsequent product prices can be adjusted upward, it is also expected to boost the net interest rate in 22 years.
Equity incentive shows confidence in medium and long-term development
The company announced the equity incentive plan in November last year. The grant price was 8.5 yuan / share, covering more than 300 people. The unlocking conditions were based on 21 years, the non deduction performance growth rate in 22-24 years was not less than 25% / 56% / 95%, and the net operating cash flow was greater than zero. The upper limit of the company’s employee stock ownership plan is 800 million yuan and the upper limit of employees’ own funds is 400 million yuan. The actual controller guarantees the annualized income of 8% of its own funds, demonstrating the management’s confidence in future business development.
Investment suggestion: the company’s market share in the waterproof industry is expected to continue to increase. At the same time, the company is also in the forefront of the industry in terms of diversified business layout such as civil building materials, coatings, thermal insulation, mortar, repair and new energy. At the same time, it is planned to invest 1 billion yuan to build a new factory in Huzhou, Zhejiang, with an annual production capacity of 110 million square meters of coiled materials, 40000 tons of coatings and 100000 tons of dry powder mortar. According to the company’s 21fy performance forecast and careful consideration of the real estate business, we adjusted the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 21 to 23 will be RMB 720 / 11.8 / 1.56 billion (the previous value was RMB 1097 / 14.56 / 18.87 billion), corresponding to pe26 / 16 / 12. We are optimistic about the company’s medium and long-term growth and maintain the “buy in” rating.
Risk tip: the new construction of real estate is lower than expected, the asphalt price rebounds sharply, and the cash flow deteriorates significantly.
