\u3000\u3000 Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (600933)
Event overview
The company issued the plan for convertible bonds: the total amount of convertible bonds to be issued by the company shall not exceed 160 million yuan (including), which shall be used for the project of Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) Intelligent Manufacturing Technology Industrial Park after deducting the issuance expenses.
Analysis and judgment:
Expand production and integrate the layout of new energy categories
The funds raised by the company’s convertible bonds will be used for the aikedi Intelligent Manufacturing Technology Industrial Park project, which is located in Ningbo. After the completion of the project, 7.1 million pieces of production capacity such as new energy vehicle battery system unit, new energy vehicle motor shell, new energy vehicle body parts, new energy vehicle electronic control and other shells will be added, which is expected to contribute to significant performance increment. The company has continuously extended from small and medium-sized parts to three electric systems and body structural parts of new energy vehicles, and the customer structure has also expanded from Tier1 to new energy host plant, actively transforming and embracing new energy. On the basis of continuing the competitive advantage of small and medium-sized products, the company strives to account for more than 30% of new energy vehicle products represented by core parts and structural parts of three electricity system of new energy vehicles by 2025 and 70% by 2030.
Tesla leads the general trend of integrated die casting. The integrated die casting body is an upgrade of lightweight technology, reducing the number of body parts and greatly simplifying the body structure; At the same time of lightweight, it simplifies the supply chain. It has many advantages, such as reducing vehicle weight, reducing battery cost, high utilization rate of raw materials, reducing factory floor area and so on, so as to greatly improve the efficiency of automobile assembly. Through the implementation of the fund-raising investment project, the company will introduce advanced medium and large-scale lean die-casting units at home and abroad ranging from 800 tons to 8400 tons, enhance the company’s competitiveness in the field of integrated die-casting, and is expected to seize more shares in the lightweight trillion market.
Accelerating the development of electric intelligence and continuously promoting globalization
The demand for aluminum alloy for new energy vehicles is more urgent. We expect that the supporting value of single vehicle can be increased by 50% – 100%; Based on light weight, complex manufacturing and thin-walled castings, aluminum alloy has high dimensional stability, strong corrosion resistance, high thermal conductivity and conductivity. It has a large application space in automotive vision system, electric power steering system and electronic control unit, and conforms to the development of intelligence. During the life of the new project, the company is expected to increase its revenue to a new high, adding electric intelligent projects such as Valeo, Continental, United electronics, ebech, Nippon power, bogwarner, Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) , bunch, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Shunyu group, Suteng juchuang, Weilai, Zero run and ideal, and new energy vehicle project, thermal management system project in 2021h1 It is expected that the new sales revenue will account for more than 50% within the service life of the automotive vision system project.
We expect that the global market share of the company’s wiper products (including motor housing, connecting rod support, drive arm, etc.) will reach 30%, and the market share of other products will not exceed 10%. With the steady progress of the company’s intelligent manufacturing, the production efficiency brought by the “digital” factory has been greatly improved, and the cost performance advantage has become more and more obvious, which will accelerate the capture of global share, and the market share is expected to continue to increase.
Investment advice
We are optimistic that the market share of the company in the field of traditional products will continue to increase, and the development of electric intelligent supporting business will drive the revenue. Taking into account the gradual repair of overseas demand and the impact of rising raw material prices, we maintain the profit forecast: it is expected that the company’s revenue of RMB 3.10/37.8/4.52 billion in 2021-23 will remain unchanged, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 440/65/790 million, and EPS will be RMB 0.51/0.75/0.92, Corresponding to the closing price of 18.51 yuan / share on January 12, 2022, PE is 36 / 25 / 20 times. Considering the strategic transformation of the company, 30 times PE is given in 2022, the target price is adjusted from 18.75 yuan to 22.50 yuan, and the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk tips
The impact of core failure exceeds expectations; The improvement of overseas passenger car demand is lower than expected; Raw material prices rose more than expected.
