\u3000\u3000 Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) (300347)
Conclusions and recommendations:
Company performance: the company issued a performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit range in 2021 will be 2.62 billion yuan to 3.03 billion yuan, yoy + 50% to + 73%. After deducting non recurring profits and losses, the company's net profit range is RMB 1.13 billion to RMB 1.32 billion, yoy + 60% to + 87%. Non recurring profits and losses in 2021 are RMB 1.4 billion to RMB 1.8 billion, mainly due to changes in the fair value of financial assets and gains from equity transfer. The growth range of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company and net profit after deduction of non profits were better than expected.
With the increase in fair value and the increase in revenue recognition, Q4 performance is expected to reach a single quarter high: (1) according to the company's performance forecast data, the company's Q4 single quarter net profit median is about 1.04 billion yuan, yoy + 142.0%, the highest level in a single quarter in history, which is mainly due to the company's non recurring profit and loss contribution, It is estimated that the non recurring profit and loss in Q4 in a single quarter is about 500-900 million yuan (an increase of 1.2-3 times year-on-year). Although the non recurring profit and loss accounts for a relatively high contribution to the net profit, this part of the income mainly comes from the companies related to the company's main business such as biomedicine and medical devices invested by the company and medical and health professional investment funds, We believe that the company relies on its cro's professional experience and industrial relations, and this part of non recurring profit and loss is actually growing. (2) Excluding non recurring profits and losses, the median net profit contributed by the company's main business is about 360 million yuan, yoy + 70.9%, which still achieved a higher than expected growth in the base period of last year (20q4 deduction of non net profit yoy + 75.5%). We believe that this is mainly because the company's covid-19 vaccine clinical business development and revenue recognition of large clinical business are better than our expectations.
Profit forecast: considering that the company's performance is better than expected, we raised our profit forecast. We expect the net profits of the company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 to be RMB 2.8 billion, RMB 3.31 billion and RMB 3.82 billion respectively, yoy + 60.0%, + 18.3% and + 15.4% respectively (it was originally estimated that the net profits of the company in 2021 and 2022 were RMB 2.25 billion and RMB 2.64 billion respectively, yoy + 28.8% and + 17.3% respectively), EPS were RMB 3.2, RMB 3.8 and RMB 4.4 respectively, The current share price corresponds to 37 times, 31 times and 27 times of PE of A-Shares in 2021, 2022 and 2023, and 25 times, 21 times and 18 times of PE of H shares. At present, the valuation is reasonable, and we maintain the investment proposal of "buying" A / H shares.
Risk tip: the R & D investment of innovative drug enterprises is less than expected, the merger and acquisition integration is less than expected, the investment income of the company is less than expected, and the impact of the epidemic is more than expected
