A-Shares finally ushered in a Jedi counterattack today. As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 2.49%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 4.37% and the gem index rose 5.52%
industry insiders suggested that in the face of sharp rise and fall, first, we should avoid the operation of "chasing up and killing down" driven by market sentiment; Second, we should strengthen our medium - and long-term confidence in China's economy and stock market
The A-share market, which has fallen sharply for two consecutive days this week, is miserable, and the market is crying. Today, A-Shares finally ushered in a major counterattack!
On April 27, the market fluctuated all day and ushered in a big rebound. The Shanghai index recovered 2900 points, and the gem index rose by more than 5%, the largest one-day increase since February 2019. On the disk, the track stocks led by lithium battery rose sharply, and many stocks rose by the limit. Cyclical sectors rebounded collectively, and rare earth, chemical, coal and other sectors rose sharply. In terms of industry sectors, energy metals, photovoltaic equipment, non-metallic materials, batteries and other sectors led the increase, while textile and clothing, commercial department stores, real estate services and other sectors led the decline.
Overall, individual stocks rose more and fell less. More than 3900 stocks rose in the two cities, and more than 200 stocks rose by the limit or more than 10%. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 917.7 billion yuan, 78.9 billion yuan higher than that of the previous trading day. As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 2.49%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 4.37% and the gem index rose 5.52%.
multiple sectors set off a rising tide
A shares finally ushered in a Jedi counterattack today, which temporarily relieved the wailing shareholders.
In terms of industry sectors, energy metals, photovoltaic equipment, non-metallic materials, batteries, small metals, aerospace and other sectors led the increase; The concept of lithium battery, PVT power plant and blade, and the concept of hi battery recovery.
On the disk, the track stocks led by lithium battery rose sharply, and many stocks rose by the limit. In addition, photovoltaic, semiconductor and other circuit sectors set off a wave of limit. Cyclical sectors rebounded collectively, and rare earth, chemical, coal and other sectors rose sharply.
Specifically, today's energy metals sector led the industry sector with an increase of 8.9%. In terms of individual stocks, Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) limit, Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) all rose by more than 6%.
In addition, the photovoltaic equipment sector rose by 8.47%. In terms of individual stocks, Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) recorded a 20cm daily limit, and Jingke energy, Hemai shares, Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , Crown Advanced Material Co.Ltd(688560) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) and other stocks rose by more than 10%.
The semiconductor sector rose across the board today. Specifically, the semiconductor industry sector rose 6.05% today. In terms of individual stocks, Shanghai Fullhan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300613) , tuojing technology-u sealed the 20cm daily limit, and Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) , NSM micro, Sg Micro Corp(300661) , Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) and other stocks rose by more than 10%.
In terms of news, the 11th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission was held on April 26. The meeting stressed the need to coordinate the two major events of development and security, firmly establish the bottom line thinking, effectively strengthen the ability of major risk prediction and early warning, and have practical response plans and specific operable measures. All regions and departments should accurately understand the spirit of the decision-making and deployment of the central financial and Economic Commission, take the initiative to shoulder responsibilities and act actively, and jointly promote the implementation of the decision-making and deployment. We should strengthen evaluation and supervision, do a good job in comprehensive balance, and correct errors in time if there are problems. We should enhance the effectiveness of implementation and evaluate the effectiveness of implementation in all aspects with practical results. We should guide market expectations, clarify policy guidance and principles, and stabilize market confidence. We should strengthen supervision and inspection, carry out follow-up and ask for results, and constantly improve the effectiveness of implementation.
Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu investment, told the reporter of international finance, "The improvement of fundamental expectations and market sentiment are the main driving factors for the sharp rise of energy metals, photovoltaic equipment and other sectors. Positive market sentiment is more favorable for individual stocks in science and technology growth sectors such as energy metals and photovoltaic equipment. In addition, the emphasis on green energy construction at the central finance and economics committee meeting means that there is more demand for energy metals and photovoltaic equipment, and the operation of relevant enterprises may exceed expectations."
how long is the bottom grinding period
According to the official Lei, the chief research officer of Xingshi investment, "today's overall market performance is a positive rebound under the recovery of confidence."
Fang Lei told the reporter of the international finance news that there are two main reasons for today's A-share counterattack at home and abroad. Specifically:
First, China hopes that the epidemic situation in Shanghai will see an inflection point, the epidemic situation in Beijing will be controlled in the early stage, the market's expectations for the economy will improve, and the extremely pessimistic mood in the early stage will be restored. Policies also boosted market economy expectations. On April 26, the central financial and Economic Commission called for comprehensive strengthening of infrastructure construction, and made it clear that the construction of network infrastructure such as transportation, energy and water conservancy should be strengthened, with networking, network supplement and chain strengthening as the focus of construction.
Second, overseas, the factors that suppress investor sentiment in the A-share market have also eased recently. On the one hand, US bond yields fell across the board, with 10-year US bonds falling to 2.77%, and the interest rate spread between China and the United States converged to more than 0. On the other hand, the expected guiding effect of the central bank's reduction of foreign exchange deposit reserve policy is obvious, and the RMB exchange rate is resilient.
Yuan Huaming also said, "the recent market adjustment is relatively large and urgent, and there are requirements for rebound in technology. Coupled with the introduction of more favorable policies this week, the heavy positive news of the central financial and Economic Commission last night further reversed the market pessimism and led to today's great counterattack in the A-share market."
"The bottom of the short-term market may have been proved today, and there will be a repair market next." Paipai's Rongzhi investment fund manager Xia Fengguang said. He believes that the technical significance of today's rebound is more important, because U.S. stocks fell sharply overnight. A shares walked out of the independent market, which not only alleviated the pressure of closing positions recently, but also helped to enhance confidence.
So, what about the future market of a shares? How long is the grinding period?
In this regard, Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times, told the reporter of the international finance news that the market trading volume will usually decline one week before the long holiday, resulting in a large disturbance to the index caused by positive and negative factors. A few days ago, the rapid depreciation of the RMB and the Beijing epidemic impacted the market, and the outflow of risk averse funds accelerated before May Day. However, this kind of risk aversion before the festival is usually corrected in the last two or three trading days. In addition, the meeting of the financial and Economic Committee once again emphasizes maintaining growth and the temporary slowdown of RMB appreciation, the probability of rapid decline before the festival is small.
\u3000\u3000 "If the margin of overseas geopolitical conflicts improves, the Chinese epidemic is controlled, more favorable policies for steady growth are introduced, and market sentiment improves in the next few days, the short-term bottom of the market may be formed. Whether the market can rebound from a short-term to a long-term reversal, in addition to the elimination of uncertainties such as overseas geopolitical conflicts, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the Chinese epidemic, China's economy driven by steady growth policies may also need to stabilize and perform well.
”Yuan Huaming pointed out.
Yuan Huaming believes that the end of the policy has been established for some time, several main bad news have been fully digested, and there may be little room for further sharp decline in the market.
Fang Lei told the reporter of the international finance news that looking back, epidemic prevention and control and "stable growth" are still the key. In an environment with relatively sufficient policy space, economic stabilization is a matter of great probability. When the local epidemic gradually subsides and high-frequency data begin to confirm the effect of resumption of work, market confidence will gradually recover, and the positive rebound of the market will continue to boost investor confidence and form positive feedback. At present, the market has formed consistent expectations for A-Shares to enter the value range and have high medium and long-term investment value. Once market confidence is restored, the market rebound may not be small.
how investors respond
A shares rose and fell sharply recently. What investors are most concerned about is how to invest. In this regard, Yuan Huaming put forward two suggestions:
First, we should avoid the operation of "chasing up and killing down" driven by market sentiment. The experience of investment masters and historical data show that the probability of success of "chasing down and killing up" is higher. This is because the decline of stock price usually means less risk and higher investment cost performance. The panic decline driven by market sentiment will also bring gold investment opportunities in which the stock price is significantly lower than the intrinsic value of the enterprise.
Second, we should strengthen our medium - and long-term confidence in China's economy and stock market. China's economic growth still has relatively strong tenacity, China has sufficient space for monetary and fiscal policies, and the capital market reform of the comprehensive registration system is good this year. With the elimination or digestion of the impact of some medium and short-term negative factors, the upward momentum and space of the A-share market are more sufficient. Investors can take advantage of this round of market adjustment to allocate those sectors and individual stocks in line with China's economic development direction, and then enjoy the development dividends of China's economy and capital market.
Yuan Huaming stressed that the A-share market has high requirements for investor sentiment control and professionalism. Ordinary investors can consider choosing appropriate professional institutions or configuring broad-based Index ETF to moderately avoid risks.
Fang Lei said, "as the market falls, from a long-term perspective, the whole investment opportunity should be bigger and bigger, and the position should be increased continuously with the decline. However, this is an ideal situation, because our capital is not unlimited, and it is difficult to accurately judge the end of the market, so we can only judge in a certain region. When the risk is greater than the opportunity, we can increase the position as much as possible."
Fang Lei further pointed out that for ordinary investors, because the amount of funds is relatively limited, if you have reached a relatively heavy position in the early stage, don't rush to stop the loss after the rapid decline of the market. The risk has been released very much when it falls rapidly. To stop the loss at this time, it may often be at a phased low point. He suggested that investors should continue to observe, because the rapid decline of the whole market is difficult to achieve in one step. Historically, even in 2008, it was not from the highest point to the lowest point in one breath.
As for investment suggestions, Xia Fengguang said, "we might as well be value oriented and make medium and long-term allocation to deal with the changes of the market. When the market is in the value range of undervalued value, we can carry out bargain hunting and reverse allocation." She believes that the causes of the short-term trend of the market are complex. Although in hindsight, the sharp rise and fall have their context, it is basically impossible to predict in advance.
Zhao Yuanyuan said, "on May Day, we still need to hold money for the holiday, or protect long stock positions in the form of options." She believes that there will be an interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in early May, and from the analysis of several current negative factors one by one, the formation of the market bottom still needs time. In addition, from the perspective of China's currency, the probability of overall significant easing will decline in the next two months. Secondly, the drag of the epidemic on the economy continues. The current round of epidemic in Beijing has become a new risk factor, and the daily vehicle freight flow has been repaired slowly. The above negative factors may not change significantly until about June.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that with the rapid decline in the early stage, the market pessimism has been greatly released. The index rose and fell on Tuesday, which also reflects the differences in funds. The trading volume of the market has shrunk significantly, the second bottom sounding action of the index may be coming to an end, and the bottom area has been more obvious. In terms of operation, there is no need to be pessimistic about the current position, control the overall position and treat the current bottom decline rationally. Patiently wait for the opportunity of the market bottom rebound, and actively pay attention to the market trend and the introduction and implementation of policies. Under the rapid rotation of the sector, the operation is very difficult. At this time, we should "use our brains and hands lazily" and wait for the market expectation to turn to the same again to regain investment confidence. Under the expectation of "steady growth" and counter cyclical regulation, various policies are being introduced continuously. As the vanguard of "steady growth", the infrastructure sector is continuously favorable. We can focus on tapping the potential layout opportunities of the infrastructure sector. At the same time, due to the impact of the epidemic, the current consumer sector is strongly suppressed, and we can pay attention to the recovery opportunities of the consumer sector in the later stage.
