Recently, the A-share market continued to be depressed, and the three major stock indexes continued to brush the low points in the new year. At this time, the latest trend of leveraged funds is particularly noteworthy. According to the data of the exchange, as of the closing on April 25, the balance of dual financing in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets totaled 1571123 billion yuan, including 1493445 billion yuan, both of which reached a new low since December 2020.
The stock index fell and the two financial shrinks were superimposed. Some investors were worried that the market might repeat the "deleveraging" in 2015. However, after combing the data, we can see that the current situation is not comparable with that in 2015, whether it is the total amount of financing or the decline rate of financing amount. People in the securities industry also generally reflect that there are few financing closing events at present, and the overall mood of leveraged funds is relatively stable.
Specifically, since July 2020, the financing balance of Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has been fluctuating repeatedly around the 1.5 trillion yuan mark, during which there has been no sharp rise and fall. At present, the total financing amount of less than 1.5 trillion yuan has only returned to the central level of the past two years, and has roughly "spit back" the increment from May to September 2021.
In contrast, the market financing balance fluctuated sharply from 2014 to 2015. At that time, the financing balance started from 400 billion yuan in 2014 to 2266.6 billion yuan at the peak in 2015, and then contracted sharply to 1180 billion yuan at the end of 2015. "From this point of view, the 'contribution' of financing funds to A-Shares has become more and more limited in recent years." Investors engaged in two financial transactions told reporters.
From the perspective of the proportion of two financial transactions, the data show that the proportion of financing transactions in the turnover of A-Shares on April 25 is 5.76%, and the peak since this year is 7.42%. In contrast, in 2015, the daily average of financing transaction volume reached 12.69% and the peak was 19.26%.
"In the past two years, the increase of financing funds has indeed brought some incremental funds to the market, but from the daily data of the trading volume of Liangrong in the trading volume of a shares, its proportion has not increased significantly. It can be inferred that although the trading volume of Liangrong in the current market fluctuates, the proportion of trading volume is still within the normal range." Anxin securities strategy team said.
From the rate of decline of financing balance. Since the stage high of 1758379 billion yuan in September last year, the financing balance has shrunk by about 265 billion yuan and the daily average has shrunk by about 1.8 billion yuan, which is obviously not comparable to the daily average reduction of nearly 10 billion yuan in the second half of 2015.
However, it is worth noting that on April 25, the Shanghai stock index fell by more than 5% in a single day, missing the 3000 point integer mark, and the financing balance on the same day decreased by 23.552 billion yuan, which is far higher than the average level of the past six months, second only to 28.12 billion yuan on January 28 (the day is the last trading day before the Spring Festival holiday).
"There have been very few forced liquidation events of the two financial institutions recently, but as far as I know, the number of early warning customers has increased." The head of a brokerage business department told reporters. In its view, the overall trading sentiment of financing customers in recent two years is not high, mainly due to the influence of investment style and market environment, and the short-term trading mode that financing customers are good at is restrained.
The reporter consulted the two financial monitoring indicators released by China's major securities companies. Most securities companies have not modified the closing warning line at present. If Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) maintains 140% of the focus line, 130% of the warning line and 110% of the closing line of the two financial institutions; Ping An Securities maintains the early warning line of 200%, the warning line of 150%, the closing line of 130% and the emergency closing line of 115%.
China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) this year, the two finance business contract was revised to add an "emergency closing line" (maintaining the guarantee ratio = 120%) on the basis of the relevant provisions of the original closing line China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) said that sufficient market research and internal demonstration had been done before the establishment of the emergency closing line, in order to prevent the risk of credit account penetration caused by the sharp decline of individual stocks in extreme cases.
In addition to the financing balance, the recent securities lending balance also showed a continuous contraction trend and did not expand with the decline of the market. Since the opening date, the balance of securities lending has fallen by about RMB 77.4 billion in the past two years.
The stock index futures market also traded smoothly. On April 25, the four contracts of CSI 300 stock index futures traded a total of 200046 billion yuan, higher than the average level since this year, but there is still a certain gap compared with the year's high of 288799 billion yuan (March 16); The trading volume of SSE 50 and CSI 500 futures index contracts is basically the same as the average value of the year.
As of the closing on April 26, the main contracts of CSI 300 index and CSI 500 index were in a small discount state, while the Shanghai 50 index rose by 0.17 points.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) futures research and development analyst Liu Chao believes that the core contradiction worried by the market is difficult to resolve in the short term. In terms of spot stock index, the core game point focuses on the direction of "supporting economy" and strong performance toughness. Among the three futures indexes, the SSE 50 index contains more "stable growth" industry targets and large financial sectors that stabilize the market, so it is relatively promising. However, if the fundamentals gradually recover in the future, the differentiation of the three indexes may also be reversed after the logic of market expectations changes.
