Today, the great counterattack finally came! Individual stocks rose, the Shanghai index rebounded strongly by more than 2%, and the gem index rose by nearly 5%. It seems that everything lost has come back in a day!
However, in the face of such a market, it is difficult for Niu Yanjun to write. Because as soon as the market rebounded, friends immediately asked, can the rebound be sustainable? Niu Yanjun himself is also thinking about this question. At the same time, he is also asking another question: what are the differences between this sharp decline in the market and today’s counterattack and the previous adjustment market.
First of all, I would like to talk about the differences between the market adjustment cycle and the past.
Reviewing the current round of market adjustment, the adjustment cycle has been as long as one year. Due to the long adjustment time, we can roughly divide it into two stages.
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the first stage , from the beginning of last year to the end of last year. As far as the CSI 300 index is concerned, it peaked at 5930 points at the beginning of last year and has fallen as much as 30% to 3757 points now. At that time, the issuance of public funds was overheated, the collective correction of track stocks, and consumer white horse stocks such as innovative drugs and Baijiu were the main areas of decline. In this process, the gem index actually still performs strongly.
the second stage , which began at the end of last year and continues until now. The main sectors of the market decline are the overvalued fields represented by new energy and semiconductors, especially the decline of gem index and Kechuang 50 index.
In these two stages of adjustment, large investment institutions, such as public funds, have been hit hard. With the sharp decline of individual stock prices, equity fund products have also retreated greatly, resulting in heavy losses for investors.
Compared with the previous market adjustments, on the one hand, generally speaking, the market fell all the way after the market peaked in the past, and there was no such phased significant adjustment 2018 is the best example. It basically fell all the way from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, and then bottomed out and rose sharply at the end of the year on the other hand, since 2021, investors’ participation in public funds has reached an unprecedented level. Therefore, with the sharp withdrawal of the net value of the fund, the loss of Jimin is also very obvious
The second point is different. The sharp decline in the market since the beginning of this year makes us very uncomfortable. This maladjustment mainly comes from the lack of sufficient predictability of sudden bad factors. For example, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine caught people off guard. Most investors, including Niu Yanjun himself, ignored the adverse impact of this factor on the market. For another example, many people did not expect the recurrence of the epidemic. The impact of these factors on the real economy is also worrying.
But what Niu Yanjun wants to say is that precisely because these negative factors are sudden, once these factors are digested, the market sentiment and expectations may be repaired soon
The third point is different. I think the negative emotions may have been magnified in the adjustment process this year. Why do you feel this way? Because now, with the continuous development of we media, it is easier and easier to spread information, analyze and predict the market, but at the same time, there will be many unprofessional, lax, and even sensational noises.
For a simple example, when the early crash occurred, there was a widely spread data statistics. This data mainly refers to the withdrawal range of top flow fund managers in 2022, of which the withdrawal range of many top flow fund managers in 2022 is more than 50%. Seeing such statistics, ordinary investors can easily believe it if they don’t verify it by themselves, and further deepen their pessimism.
However, if we simply calculate the stage decline of net worth, if we calculate from the high point of last year, the decline is indeed a little large, but it is not as exaggerated as we media statistics. Taking the blue chip selection of e fund managed by Zhang Kun as an example, from the highest point at the beginning of last year to the lowest point this year, the maximum decline is 44%, but in fact, it has only fallen by 22% this year, which is “better” than many fund managers.
therefore, I think such irresponsible so-called news has also increased the pessimism of the market to a certain extent
The fourth difference is that the strategy of the management to rescue the market is quite different from that before.
This time, we are more implicit in monetary policy, did not see the interest rate cut, and the RRR cut is also very restrained. Most of the recent favorable policies in the economic field are also related to the revitalization of the real economy and industries. Relatively speaking, we have not seen the strong market rescue policies such as “interest rate cut”, “stamp duty cut” and “IPO suspension” in the past.
But when you think about it carefully, the “simple and crude” rescue may only be a temporary cure, but not a permanent cure the foundation of the stock market is still the real economy. Only when the real economy is good can the rebound of the stock market be sustainable
In addition, last night, the management introduced new favorable policies. The meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission required to guide market expectations and stabilize market confidence. Its specific content is directly aimed at the specific real economy, such as strengthening the construction of network infrastructure such as transportation, energy and water conservancy, and improving the independent and controllable level of infrastructure technology.
In addition, the goal of the latest policy issued by the CSRC is also directed at public funds: the opinions on accelerating the high-quality development of the public fund industry was issued. Public funds have become one of the most important investment methods for ordinary investors. In Niu Yanjun’s view, the high-quality development of the public fund industry is actually the development of our “traders”. Only when the public offering ability is improved can we be more able to help investors make money.
Well, think about these problems clearly, and let’s look at today’s rebound. Niu Yanjun’s account has also returned blood. Although I don’t know how strong the rebound can be and how long it will last. However, at least we see the hope of stopping the decline and rebound. We can relax tonight!
