Viewpoint: after four consecutive months of recovery, the leading economic indicators fell below the boom and bust line, confirming the judgment of anti pumping we mentioned earlier. In this case, the pressure of economic growth still inhibits the market. Under the support of policy support and monetary easing cycle, the market as a whole is still a process of shock bottoming. In the short term, after the continuous panic decline, the market ushered in a retaliatory rebound, but the rebound here is also emotional. The market is still unstable, and the height of the short-term oversold rebound should be reduced. At this time, the strategic allocation of the middle line may still fall, and then the index may fall again.
Today's A-Shares are definitely against the trend. After all, under the sharp fall of US stocks overnight, they not only opened slightly lower, but also ushered in an upward attack after the opening shock. In the afternoon, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and other rights rose significantly, the gem continued to rise, and the index rose by more than 5% in the session. Led by multiple sectors, the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes also rebounded sharply. On the disk, the power equipment sector led the rise, non-ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, electronics, basic chemicals and computers rose sharply, the real estate sector led the decline, and textiles, clothing and banks once fell.
After yesterday's closing, two major news came from the market: first, the meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission proposed to guide market expectations and stabilize market confidence; Second, the CSRC issued a heavy release to reverse the over reliance on the "star fund manager" model. From the perspective of the former, the specification is high. What is important is the overall guidance for economic work, which not only makes a voice, but also promotes the implementation. Deliver positive signals to the market under the condition of financial stability. The latter proposed "... Actively promote the establishment of fund management companies by high-quality financial institutions such as commercial banks, insurance institutions and securities companies according to law...", which also indicates that the expectation of promoting the entry of long-term funds into the market will be gradually implemented.
We often say that the market depends on expectations. Under normal circumstances, we look at the macro and industry development trends, and even the growth of individual stocks. But irrational, for the Chinese market, it often depends on policy expectations and changes in sentiment. For example, at present, the policy has been continuously overweight, but it is still not enough. Therefore, when higher standard policies or measures are out, the expectation will change. Especially, when the mood is also in continuous panic, it will often form a short-term turnaround.
Therefore, on this basis, with the superposition of the laws after previous panic, investors can also expect the oversold rebound that will soon exit here. Therefore, the rebound on that day is actually within everyone's expectations.
However, it should be emphasized here that this rebound is often an oversold rebound or oversold rebound. The probability event may fall again or even bottom out, especially the first rebound after the panic decline. After all, after a sharp decline, market sentiment is still unstable, and there is still the interference of the Federal Reserve's possible interest rate hike in early May. Therefore, the rebound here is only an oversold rebound. Be careful not to fall back again or continue to bottom after the rebound. At that time, there may be the possibility of the so-called stage bottom.
