Last week, the main market indexes showed an adjustment trend, and the Shenwan industry fell more or rose less. On the disk, the Shanghai stock index fell 3.87%; The component index fell 5.12%; Gem index fell 6.66%; CSI 300 fell 4.19%; SSE 50 fell 3.97%; China securities fell by 500.5%; CSI 1000 fell 6.11%; Kechuang board fell 22.3%; Only textile and clothing rose in Shenwan industry. Real estate (- 9.20%), steel (- 9.05%), non-ferrous metals (- 8.08%), medicine and Biology (- 7.34%) and coal (- 7.20%) led the decline.
Last week, the energy of the two cities fell, and the funds going north showed a net inflow. Last week, the average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 797597 billion, down 12.06% from 906985 billion in the previous period; The average daily turnover of the two cities was 74.113 billion shares, down 11.97% month on month; In RMB, the total inflow of land stock to the north is 2.878 billion yuan, including 1.587 billion yuan from Shanghai Stock connect and 1.291 billion yuan from Shenzhen Stock connect.
Internal and external shocks exacerbated the downward pressure on the economy. GDP in the first quarter increased by 4.8% over the same period last year, up 0.8 percentage points from the fourth quarter. Overall, the economy was relatively stable in the first quarter, but the economy is still facing great downward pressure. The good economic performance of Q1 was mainly affected by the good start from January to February. After entering March, there was an epidemic that impacted the consumption and supply chain, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine pushed up international commodity prices. China’s economic activity weakened significantly and the economic growth situation also reversed. On the whole, in March, the demand side was depressed, the supply chain at the production side was broken and disordered, and the pressure on both sides of supply and demand increased. The main thrust of economic growth came from the investment side. In the future, the impact of the epidemic has not completely subsided. Taking Shanghai as an example, more strict prevention and control measures are still taken, which has a great drag on the resumption of work and production. In addition, different epidemic prevention and control policies across the country also have a certain impact on the supply chain and logistics. It is expected that the negative effects caused by the epidemic will continue. The steady growth policy still needs to continue to make efforts to hedge the impact of the increasing downward pressure on the economy, and we need to continue to pay attention to the dynamics of the steady growth policy.
The downward pressure on the economy has increased, the depreciation of the RMB has accelerated, and the market pessimism has increased. We mentioned in the second quarter investment strategy “A shares continue to seek the bottom and wait for a turnaround”. At present, China’s economy is in the early stage of similar recession. Compared with the first three rounds of economic cycles, the current A shares have not reached the end in terms of time and space, and A-Shares may continue to seek the bottom. China’s economy is currently disturbed by the epidemic, and the upward pressure has increased significantly. Superimposed on the recent continuous devaluation of the RMB, the market risk appetite continues to rise in line F, and the market pessimism heats up. Looking back, we believe that the current situation still needs to remain calm and wait-and-see to reduce operations. There is no obvious turning signal in the market, or the trend of shock bottom seeking may be maintained. In the follow-up, we can pay attention to the starting point of steady growth policy. In terms of industry, we can pay attention to industries related to the stable growth chain, such as real estate, infrastructure, etc., as well as industries related to the post cycle of real estate.
Risk tips: the epidemic situation exceeded expectations, the liquidity tightening exceeded expectations, and the economic downturn exceeded expectations.
