Event:
Recently, the Shanghai composite index returned to within 3000 points and closed at 288643 points on April 26. Key investment points:
Same point, different valuation
Recently, affected by the Fed's interest rate hike, the RMB exchange rate accelerated depreciation and led to a significant adjustment in the market. The Shanghai composite index returned to within 3000 points and closed at 288643 points on April 26, which is equivalent to the level in early March 2007. However, due to different profit levels, the same point corresponds to different valuations. In the past 15 years, the current valuation quantiles of P / E ratio and P / B ratio of Shanghai composite index are at the low quantiles of 14.3% and 0.3% respectively.
At present, which industries are underestimated?
In terms of industries, the current P / E ratio and P / B ratio are within 10% in the past 15 years. The industries with quantile level include computer, communication, textile and garment, medicine and biology, petroleum and petrochemical, environmental protection, non bank finance, media and electronics. The above are mainly concentrated in growth industries. That is, the current valuation of growth industries is close to the historical bottom.
At the same time, the current point is only one step away from the important pass of 2800, while the early 2800 occurred on April 10, 2020 and August 9, 2019 respectively. We compare the current valuation with the above two time points. From the comparison of P / E ratio, at present, the media, communications, non-ferrous metals, textiles and clothing, electronics, non bank finance, petroleum and petrochemical, national defense and military industry, environmental protection, computers, etc. are in a relatively undervalued position. It can be seen from the above industries that the undervalued sector is mainly concentrated in the first is the cyclical industry with better upstream profits; The second is the growth industry, which is also more consistent with the results shown by the above quantile value.
Which industries are in the position of low allocation of funds?
The industries with low allocation in the first quarter and a decrease compared with the fourth quarter of last year include non bank finance, mechanical equipment, public utilities, basic chemical industry, building decoration, automobile, media, steel, environmental protection, etc; The industries with low distribution but improved compared with the fourth quarter include banking, transportation, coal, real estate, petrochemical and other industries with low value and high dividend.
Industry configuration suggestions
At present, undervalued and low configuration industries may have a high safety margin and face less pressure to reduce their holdings. We suggest paying attention to cyclical industries such as non bank finance, machinery and equipment, petroleum and petrochemical; In the context of the Fed's growth in the medium and short-term valuation of the pharmaceutical and environmental protection industries, although the growth of these industries has been suppressed by the Fed's growth in the medium and short-term valuation of the pharmaceutical and environmental protection industries.
Risk tips
Repeated outbreaks; Inflation exceeded expectations; The Fed raised interest rates more than expected
