The current round of epidemic has lasted for nearly two months and has a huge impact on the economy and life. We reported in the previous report "how much impact does the current epidemic have on the economy?" Comprehensive analysis and calculation have been carried out in the economic impact of the current epidemic from the perspective of logistics. At present, the economic data of March and the first quarter have been released. Looking back on March, how much is the actual impact of the epidemic? Since April, the epidemic situation has further deteriorated. This paper will further evaluate the impact on the economy from the perspective of total amount and industry.
Core view: the impact of the epidemic on the economy will be further revealed. It is conservatively estimated that it will drag down about 2% of GDP in the second quarter and about 0.7% of GDP in the whole year. We will focus on the possible optimization of epidemic prevention and control strategies.
1. In terms of the total amount, the current epidemic has dragged down the consumption of about 3% in March and about 7% in April; It will drag down about 0.8% of the GDP of Q1. If the epidemic is controlled by the end of May, it will drag down about 2% of the GDP of Q2, with a total drag of about 0.7% of the GDP of the whole year.
In the previous report, "what is the impact of the current epidemic on the economy?" In, we refer to the epidemic situation in 2021 and estimate the impact of the epidemic on consumption and GDP Based on the three situations of high / medium / low. At present, Q1 economic data has been released. Due to multiple difficulties in the calculation process (base effect, data deviation, impact of non epidemic factors, etc.), it is found that the change range of quarter on quarter growth rate is a more accurate indicator to verify the actual impact of the epidemic:
Consumer side: the social zero month on month decline in March was 2.8 points, which was consistent with the calculation results in our previous report;
Production side: the industrial production increased in March and leveled quarter on quarter, mainly due to the "up and down" of industrial production in March;
Investment side: the quarter on quarter adjustment of fixed investment in March was flat, mainly due to the development of infrastructure, hedging the decline of real estate and manufacturing investment;
Export side: in recent years, the quarter on quarter export adjustment is no longer announced. Combined with the changes in South Korea's exports, the epidemic has affected about 3.3 points;
Overall, the quarterly adjustment of GDP in the first quarter decreased by 0.2 percentage points compared with Q4 last year, with a small decline. The main reason is that the Q1 economy went up and down first, and the "high opening" of the economy from January to February offset some of the "low going" in March; According to the expenditure method, the impact of this round of epidemic on GDP in the first quarter may be about 0.8 points, close to one point we calculated.
In April, the epidemic affected a wider range and strengthened prevention and control. The scope of impact is wider: from the perspective of provinces, 29 of the 31 provinces have been affected by the epidemic since April; In terms of cities, about 220 of China's 333 prefecture level cities were affected by the epidemic, accounting for 66.1% of cities and 83.7% of GDP; There are 84 cities affected daily, accounting for 49.2% of GDP. It is noted that the areas with more serious epidemic in this round are mainly limited to Shanghai and Changchun. Recently, the epidemic in Changchun has improved, and the new cases in Shanghai society have decreased, but it is still the core of the national epidemic. Stronger prevention and control efforts: the current round of epidemic prevention and control has become more difficult. Recently, the prevention and control measures in various places have generally been more decisive and rapid, and there is a tendency to upgrade prevention and control.
The impact of the epidemic on the economy in April will be significantly greater than that in March. The impact of the epidemic on China's economy mainly depends on the scope of impact and the intensity of prevention and control. As mentioned above, the impact of the epidemic in March is close to our calculation. Therefore, we continue our previous analysis and sort out the 220 cities affected by the epidemic in April and their sealing and control situation one by one: most large cities are affected by the sealing and control measures: among the cities with the epidemic, there are few cities under comprehensive sealing and control, 70% of them are sealed and controlled, and 1 / 4 of them are sealed or not sealed, According to the previous calculation of high, middle and low impact intensity, the impact of the epidemic in April on social zero in April was about 7 points and the impact on GDP in the second quarter was about 1.7 points; If the epidemic situation is controlled in the second quarter, it is basically about 2% of GDP in the current round; In the first half of the year, the epidemic dragged down about 0.7% of the annual GDP.
2. From the perspective of industry, the impact of the current epidemic is not exactly the same as that of the past two years; Referring to March 2020, after the epidemic subsides, industries such as automobile, infrastructure, textile and clothing may rebound strongly. It is also suggested to pay attention to the post real estate cycle.
From the perspective of major industries, compared with the past two years, the current epidemic situation has "two differences and one similarity": the decline in added value of construction industry and information technology service industry is relatively small, the growth rate of real estate industry and manufacturing industry is still improving, and the impact of epidemic prevention and control on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, transportation, accommodation, catering, wholesale retail and other industries is close to the "local new year" in Q1 in 2021. From the perspective of subdivided industries, there are two industrial chains with strong performance: infrastructure chain (policy force) and textile chain (overseas travel).
Referring to the experience of 2020, after the epidemic subsided, the rebound of automobile, infrastructure, textile and clothing was strong. After the Q1 epidemic was controlled in 2020, the growth rate of industrial added value in most industries rebounded. Among them, the growth rate of Q2 added value in automobile manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, textile and non-metallic mineral products increased by 36.5, 26.9, 20.0 and 18.5 points respectively compared with Q1. The rebound range was higher, which contributed to the increase of residents' demand for cars, infrastructure and travel after the epidemic.
3. On the whole, the natural recovery of the economy after the current round of epidemic may be slower, which requires further policy efforts, especially optimizing the epidemic control strategy. Fortunately, with the recent increase of "ensuring the supply chain", logistics has improved marginally since April.
The natural recovery of the economy after this round of epidemic is slow. From the perspective of Guangdong, where the current round of epidemic situation is well controlled, the vehicle freight flow index has recovered slowly since mid April, which is about 25% lower than the normal level. The main reason is that the sealing and control measures may continue for a period of time after the epidemic situation is controlled, and the "dynamic zeroing" has a continuous impact on the economy, which also means that further policies are needed, especially optimizing the epidemic situation control strategy.
The impact of poor logistics is greater than expected. Fortunately, the marginal improvement since mid April. In hindsight, the impact of poor logistics in April was greater than expected, mainly due to the "overweight at all levels" in some areas, the illegal setting of epidemic prevention checkpoints, the closure of toll stations on highways, etc. In April, the growth rate of major logistics indicators such as 100 city congestion index, 10 city subway passenger volume and vehicle freight flow further decreased. However, since mid April, all logistics indexes have generally bottomed out and rebounded, pointing to the marginal improvement of the impact of the epidemic.
Risk tips: the evolution of epidemic situation, external environment, policy strength and other unexpected changes
