Industrial high frequency periodicity observation. 1) Inflation. Last week (04.18-04.22, the same below), the price of pork rose to 18.41 yuan / kg, the specific price of pig grain rose to 4.86, the price of chicken rose, the price of beef fell, the price of mutton rose, the price of vegetables fell and the price of fruit rose. 2) Industry. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate fell, the operating rates of coking enterprises with various production capacities rose and fell, the rebar price rose and the inventory fell; Copper prices fell and inventories accumulated. 3) Consumption. The year-on-year growth rate of Automobile wholesale and retail fell, and the film box office revenue and film viewers fell month on month. 4) Real estate. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities rose on a weekly basis, and the transaction area of land in 100 cities rebounded on a weekly basis.
Weekly observation of financial markets. 1) Stock market. Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 308692 points, down 3.87% week on week; The gem index closed at 229660, down 6.66% on week. From the perspective of industry sectors, only the textile and garment industry rose, while other sectors fell, including real estate, steel and non-ferrous metals. 2) Bond market. The short-term interest rate bond yield goes down and the upper end goes up, the term interest rate spread widens, and the interest rate spread between China and the United States narrows. On April 22, the yields of 1y treasury bonds, 10Y treasury bonds, 1y CDB bonds and 10Y CDB bonds closed at 1.95%, 2.84%, 2.11% and 3.08% respectively, and the week on week ratio changed by - 4bp, 8bp, - 5bp and 9bp respectively; The term spreads of 10y-1y treasury bonds and CDB bonds were 89bp and 97bp respectively, and the week on week ratio changed by 12bp and 14bp respectively; China US interest rate spread closed at - 6BP, narrowing 1bp. 3) Commodities. The price of crude oil, coke and granulated sugar rose to 680.9, while the price of soybean oil and copper futures rose to 680.9, while the price of soybean oil and granulated sugar index fell.
Weekly observation of macro policies. 1) Monetary policy. Last week, a total of 50 billion yuan of reverse repo was invested in the open market, 60 billion yuan of reverse repo expired, and 10 billion yuan of net return was accumulated in the broad open market throughout the week. Dr001 and dr007 closed at 1.23% and 1.54% respectively, and the yield of Shibor and 1y interbank certificates of deposit closed at 2.31% and 2.43% respectively in March. 2) Policy developments. In the first quarter, the real GDP increased by 4.8% year-on-year; The people's Bank of China and the State Administration of foreign exchange issued the notice on doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control and financial services for economic and social development.
Core view. 1) The epidemic continues to impact, and production and consumption are weak. In terms of inflation, pork prices rose last week and the price ratio of pig to grain rebounded, but the supply of live pigs is still in the stage of surplus. In terms of supply, the operating rate of blast furnace decreased. Except for small capacity coking enterprises, the operating rates of medium-sized and large coking enterprises increased. In terms of demand, auto wholesale and retail fell year-on-year. Affected by the epidemic, film box office revenue and person times have rebounded. At present, consumer demand is still weak; The demand side policy of multi land real estate continued to relax, and the sales of commercial housing increased slightly. 2) The internal and external pressure on the economy has increased, and the policy side has shown positive signals. In the first quarter, the real GDP increased by 4.8% year-on-year, which is still a certain distance from the annual economic growth target of 5.5%. From the perspective of China's economy, under the influence of the epidemic, both supply and demand were impacted in March. On the one hand, factors such as shutdown and logistics obstruction in areas with serious epidemic dragged down industrial production; On the other hand, the epidemic has hindered personnel and logistics, reduced the growth rate of residents' disposable income and impacted the recovery of consumption. Externally, there is still uncertainty in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The Federal Reserve recently issued hawkish remarks that it will raise interest rates by 50bp or even 75bp more than once. The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase and table contraction will cause the upside down of interest rate spread between China and the United States and the depreciation of RMB, which have certain constraints on China's monetary policy. The governor of the central bank also said on April 22 that the primary task of China's monetary policy is to maintain price stability. Under the increasing internal and external pressure, the steady growth policy needs to be strengthened. Recently, the central bank and the foreign exchange bureau issued the "Article 23" to strengthen financial services and support the real economy from three aspects: supporting the relief of the distressed subjects, unblocking the national economic cycle and promoting the development of foreign trade and exports, so as to make financial policies continue to work; In addition, we expect that the local government will complete the issuance of most new special bonds by the end of June and the issuance of the remaining amount in the third quarter. The forward force of fiscal policy may provide some support for the implementation of wide credit.
Risk tip: there is a risk of epidemic spread in China, and the overseas situation has changed more than expected.
