Investment advice
Market review: this week, the CSI 300 index fell 4.19%, and the Shenwan agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery index fell 2.85%. Among the secondary sub industries, aquaculture, seed production and forestry ranked among the top, falling by 0.21%, 3.50% and 4.73% respectively. Top three gainers of some key stocks: Joyvio Food Co.Ltd(300268) (+ 20.90%), Shandong Xiantan Co.Ltd(002746) (+ 13.14%), Hefei Fengle Seed Co.Ltd(000713) (+ 11.47%). Top three declines: ST Changyu (- 22.84%), Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) (- 21.23%), St Tianshan (- 20.07%).
Pig breeding: under the influence of many factors such as the boost of collection and storage for many times, the rising bullish mood of farmers and the limited transportation of pigs, the national pig price has rebounded slightly for three consecutive weeks, and the loss of farms has been alleviated. According to the data of China pig breeding network, as of April 22, the average price of three yuan commercial pigs across the country was 14.78 yuan / kg, up 16.47% from 12.69 yuan / kg last week; The loss of self breeding farmers decreased from -531.70 yuan / head to -376.61 yuan / head, a month on month increase of + 29.17%. We believe that this round of price increase is mainly caused by the sentiment of farmers. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, it is not enough to support the continuous and rapid rise of pig prices. After that, there should be a phased correction. The trend of pig production capacity deregulation has been determined, and the price center of pig price should rise in the second half of the year. It is suggested to treat the short-term disturbance rationally, pay attention to the upward opportunities of pig price brought by the core supply-demand relationship, and focus on enterprises with stable operation and strong growth certainty. Key recommendations: Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) : cost leadership, strong growth certainty, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) : sufficient capital reserves and effective cost control in the near future.
Planting industry chain: on April 20, Premier Li Keqiang made arrangements at the executive meeting of the State Council to further improve agricultural production in spring to ensure a bumper harvest of grain and a stable supply of important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) crops. The meeting pointed out that stabilizing employment and prices is the main support to keep the economy running within a reasonable range. At present, the national grain inventory is relatively abundant and the spring ploughing is developing smoothly, and the food security has not been greatly affected. China will further strengthen the grain reserve system to deal with the uncertainty of the international grain market. In 2022, the No. 1 document of the Central Committee proposed to vigorously promote the research on key agricultural core technologies such as seed sources, fully implement the action plan for seed industry revitalization, and launch major agricultural biological breeding projects to ensure national food security. At the same time, in March, 2022, the Central Committee pointed out that it was necessary to strengthen the financial guarantee for the research on key agricultural core technologies such as seed sources, Once again, it demonstrates the government's determination to vigorously support the development of seed industry. In the current environment of rising global food prices and restrictions on food exports in many countries, transgenic technology is expected to accelerate the implementation. Key recommendations: Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) : abundant reserves of transgenic technology, Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) : corn seeds are expected to increase both quantity and price.
Poultry breeding: the avian influenza epidemic in the United States continues to spread. In the future, China may ban the import of poultry products from the United States to protect China's biosafety. Due to the improvement of industry prosperity caused by the expectation of Customs closure, the outlook of white feather chicken industry chain rebounded this week, and the prices of related products increased significantly. The average price of white feather chicken rose to 9.24 yuan / kg, up + 3.94% from last week; The average price of broiler seedlings in the main producing areas rose to 3.18 yuan / feather, up + 52.15% from last week. The bird flu epidemic caused the loss of more than 19 million laying hens on commercial farms in the United States, accounting for about 6% of the total number of chickens; As the largest egg supplier in the European Union, France has culled about 8% of its laying hens. Under the joint action of many factors, the global egg price continues to rise. At present, the white feather broiler industry is still in a state of oversupply. In the follow-up, we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of the policy on the stock of ancestral chickens and the promotion process of breeding chickens in China. Highlights: Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) : own ancestral breeding chickens, sell breeding chickens and parental generation chicken seedlings.
Risk warning: capacity reduction is less than expected / the promotion process of GM corn is delayed / animal disease outbreak / Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuation.
