Core view
Pig breeding: it can reproduce and eliminate more than expected, and grasp the opportunity of pig cycle allocation. (1) Pig prices increased on a weekly basis, and the loss of pig breeding was alleviated. According to Yongyi information data, the pig price was 14.12 yuan / kg on April 22, up 13.14% on a weekly basis. According to wind data, on April 22, the profit of self bred pigs was -376.61 yuan / head, and the weekly loss decreased by 155.09 yuan / head. Pig prices rose significantly, and the loss of self bred pigs slowed down. (2) The production capacity of fertile sows exceeded expectations, and the import of pork decreased significantly in the first quarter. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, by the end of March, the number of sows that can breed had reached 41.85 million, which was 8.30% less than the peak in June 2021, 102.1% of the normal number of 41 million, and was in a green and reasonable range. According to the latest data from the General Administration of customs, China’s pork imports in March 2022 were 140000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 70%; In the first quarter, the import volume was 420000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 64.2%. In 2022, due to the increase of import tax rate, the high supply of pigs in China and the strict control on the import of frozen products under the epidemic, the import of pork in China decreased significantly in the first quarter, which may benefit China’s pig industry. (3) Grasp the opportunity of periodic investment and suggest paying attention to the stable operation of pig enterprises. Ma Youxiang, Vice Minister of agriculture and rural areas, said at the “2022 China Agricultural Outlook conference” that at present, pig prices have shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding. The Ministry of agriculture and rural areas expects pig production to reach breakeven point in June. However, the fundamentals of oversupply still need time to change, and the uncertainty of pork consumption still exists with the recurrence of the epidemic in China. Under the consensus expectation, farmers may be reluctant to sell and press the column, or have an impact on the subsequent pig supply. It is suggested to grasp the left layout opportunity and pay attention to breeding enterprises with stable operation and significant cost control advantages.
Seed industry: the policy promotes the revitalization of seed industry and is optimistic about the development prospect of seed enterprises. (1) Seed enterprises have excellent performance in 2021, and the profitability of seed industry is significant. Seven kinds of enterprises have published their annual reports for 2021, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of six companies has increased year-on-year, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company of Hefei Fengle Seed Co.Ltd(000713) and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) have increased by 263.05% and 128.33% year-on-year respectively. (2) The policy promotes the revitalization of seed industry and is optimistic about the development prospect of seed enterprises. On April 18, the notice on doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control and financial services for economic and social development was issued, which proposed to strengthen the financial guarantee for tackling key agricultural core technologies such as seed sources. On April 20, Li Keqiang proposed to study the measures to increase agricultural subsidies, timely do a good job in the purchase of grain, protect and mobilize farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain, and ensure a bumper harvest and important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) stable supply. (3) Abnormal weather broke out in North America, and attention was paid to the transmission process of high international grain prices to China. Extreme weather in some overseas areas may affect food supply, and international food prices remain high. High international grain prices have increased the cost of China’s grain imports, and China’s grain prices are expected to remain high. Under high grain prices, the seed industry maintained a high boom. Favorable policies are expected to accelerate the tackling of key agricultural core technologies such as seed sources, and leading seed enterprises may gain market share. We suggest paying attention to seed enterprises with obvious variety advantages and core breeding advantages.
Investment advice
Pig breeding: accelerate the de industrialization of breeding capacity, and actively arrange periodic investment. It is suggested to pay attention to breeding enterprises with stable operation and significant cost control advantages. Relevant subject matter Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) etc. Seed industry: high grain prices, strong seed demand and upward prosperity. Favorable policies are expected to accelerate the tackling of key agricultural core technologies such as seed sources. It is suggested to pay attention to seed enterprises with obvious variety advantages and core breeding advantages. Ì.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic fluctuations; Non plague situation; Extreme weather effects, etc.
