Market review: the brokerage index fell 5.3% in the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.2pct
In the past two weeks (4.11-4.22), the Shanghai index fell 5.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 7.6%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 5.1% and the gem index fell 10.6%. Non bank finance (Shenwan) fell by 5.4%, ranking 12 / 31 in rise and fall, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.2 percentage points; Among them, the brokerage index fell 5.3%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.2 percentage points.
The top five securities companies were: Nanjing Securities Co.Ltd(601990) (+ 8.8%), Hongta Securities Co.Ltd(601236) (+ 2.9%), Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) (+ 1.8%), Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) (+ 1.6%), China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) (- 0.3%). The securities companies with the last five increases are: China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) (- 11.6%), Shanghai Chinafortune Co.Ltd(600621) (- 13.8%), Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) (- 14.6%), Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) (- 21.7%), Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) (- 27.1%).
Industry weekly data: the daily average stock based trading volume of the two cities decreased significantly
Brokerage business: last week (April 18-april 22), the daily average stock base turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 876.1 billion yuan, down 11.7% month on month. Since last week, the market has adjusted significantly, and the daily average stock based trading volume has dropped significantly. Investment banking: last week (April 18-april 22), the scale of equity financing was 81.3 billion yuan (mom + 148%); The IPO Financing scale was 57 billion yuan (mom + 450%), and the refinancing scale was 24.3 billion yuan (mom + 8%). In terms of bond issuance, since April, the issuance scale of corporate bonds and corporate bonds has been 65.4 billion and 394.8 billion respectively, of which the issuance scale of corporate bonds has exceeded the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of 7%. Capital intermediary business: as of last Friday (April 22), the balance of margin trading and securities lending in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1614 billion yuan, a decrease of 1% month on month; The balance of two financial institutions accounted for 2.66% of the total circulating market value of a shares, up 0.09 percentage points month on month, mainly due to the rapid decline of the market.
Industry highlights: the implementation of the personal pension system is expected to usher in long-term funds in the capital market
(1) the opinions on promoting the development of individual pension issued by the general office of the State Council mainly has two impacts: first, the individual pension system has improved the “three pillar” system of China’s pension insurance, which will alleviate the pressure of the first and second pillar pension under the background of aging; Secondly, individual pension accounts are paid by individuals and invested independently, which is expected to bring long-term incremental funds to the capital market and promote the development of asset management industry.
(2) Yi Huiman presided over the Party committee (enlarged) meeting to convey and implement the spirit of the special meeting of the financial committee of the State Council. The meeting stressed the need to respond to market concerns in a timely manner, guide market expectations, stimulate market vitality and potential, further improve market resilience and promote the stable and healthy operation of the capital market.
Investment advice
In terms of policies, the deepening reform of the capital market is advancing rapidly, and the full implementation of the stock issuance registration system is expected to be accelerated. The measures to stabilize the financial market were accelerated by superimposing the goal of stable growth, and the marginal development of the industry was better. In terms of valuation, the current valuation of Pb in the securities sector is only 1.35x, which is below the 10% quantile of Pb in recent 10 years. The safety margin of the sector is high and has configuration value. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of head securities companies under the transformation of wealth management and maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk; The risk of sharp decline in the secondary market; Industry competition intensifies risks, etc.
