Last week, all segments of the new materials industry continued to fall, led by new energy materials. Last week, the valuation (price earnings ratio TTM) of various sectors continued to adjust, and the price earnings ratio of photovoltaic materials fell below the long-term median
Last week, the industry segments continued the downward trend, led by lithium batteries and photovoltaic materials, with weekly declines of 7.35% and 5.93% respectively, 3.16 percentage points and 1.74 percentage points lower than the benchmark (Shanghai and Shenzhen 300) respectively. Although the weekly declines of magnetic materials and carbon fiber sectors were 3.12% and 4% respectively, they outperformed the benchmark by 1.07 percentage points and 0.19 percentage points respectively. Last week, the valuation level (price earnings ratio TTM) of each sector continued to adjust. The price earnings ratio (TTM) of magnetic materials, carbon fiber, lithium battery materials, photovoltaic materials, semiconductor materials and panel materials fell by 1.3x, 1.5x, 4.8x, 2.3x, 3.4x and 0.5x to 29.1x, 39.2x, 32.9x, 38.9x, 52.5x and 18.8x respectively. From the historical quantile of valuation level, last week, the sectors of magnetic materials, carbon fiber, lithium battery materials, semiconductor materials and panel materials were at the 18% quantile, 0.9% quantile, 15.6% quantile, 28.2% quantile and new low of the long-term valuation level respectively, while the photovoltaic materials sector fell below the long-term median level to 48.8%.
The price of praseodymium and neodymium rebounded, and the weekly average gross profit of praseodymium and neodymium oxide industry rebounded. The prices of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium rebounded sharply, and gadolinium iron rebounded, but the price of holmium ferroalloy continued to be weak. Cobalt futures prices were stable, spot prices rose slightly, ferroboron and ferroniobium alloys were stable, and the high price of gallium was stable. The price of sintered Nd-Fe-B magnetic material blank remained stable
Praseodymium and neodymium: after the rapid rise of praseodymium and neodymium prices last week, the national average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 840000 yuan / ton, rising by 2.44% on a weekly basis; The average price of praseodymium and neodymium was 1042000 yuan / ton, rebounding 1.96% week on week. At the beginning of last week, the trading volume of praseodymium and neodymium oxide market increased and the price rose rapidly. However, on Tuesday, under the influence of the national development and Reform Commission that it would spare no efforts to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities, and severely crack down on illegal acts such as hoarding, bid up prices and spreading false information, the shipment situation of traders increased, the quotation decreased, the inquiry and purchase of metal factories slowed down, the market activity decreased, and the price of praseodymium and neodymium declined narrowly. Last week, the output of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 1391 tons, a decrease of 1.56% on a weekly basis. Affected by the epidemic and insufficient raw ore supply, the output of some enterprises decreased. Last week, the inventory of praseodymium and neodymium oxide factory was 3411 tons, down 1.87% on a weekly basis. The rebound in prices has increased the willingness of metal factories to purchase and replenish goods, increased the actual transaction, and increased the consumption inventory of separation enterprises and waste enterprises, but the terminal orders have not improved. Last week, the average gross profit of praseodymium and neodymium oxide industry increased by 7900 yuan / ton to 52600 yuan / ton; The average gross profit of the metal praseodymium and neodymium industry rose by 19600 yuan / ton to 13900 yuan / ton.
Heavy rare earth: the price of dysprosium rebounded last week. The average price of dysprosium oxide and dysprosium iron in China was 2590 yuan / kg, up 5.71% on a weekly basis. At the beginning of last week, the dysprosium oxide market increased orders and transactions, and the price of dysprosium products continued to rise, but the market transactions began to weaken on Wednesday. Terbium oxide market orders increased, prices continued to run at a high level, and merchants were not willing to ship at a low price. The national average price of terbium oxide was 14100 yuan / kg, up 10.42% on a weekly basis; The average price of metal terbium was 17600 yuan / kg, up 7.84% on a weekly basis. Last week, the average price of gadolinium ferroalloy in China was 405000 yuan / ton, rebounding 1.25% week on week; The average price of holmium ferroalloy in China was 1.25 million yuan / ton, which continued to fall sharply by 11.35% on a weekly basis.
Other raw materials: last week, LME cobalt futures were flat at US $82000 / ton on a week-on-week basis, and the spot price of non-ferrous cobalt in the Yangtze River rebounded by 0.18% to 560000 yuan / ton on a month-on-month basis. The prices of ferroboron (18%), gallium (99.99%) and ferroniobium (60-a) remained stable.
Sintered NdFeB: the price of NdFeB was stable last week, and the national average prices of rough sintered NdFeB N35 and H35 were flat at 257.5 yuan / kg and 320.5 yuan / kg respectively.
The price of cathode cobalt raw material rose slightly, the price of nickel and cobalt sulfate rose, the price of manganese sulfate remained stable, the price of lithium source fell, the price of cathode precursor rose, and the price of cathode material was adjusted. In the electrolyte sector, lithium hexafluorophosphate and DMC continued their downward trend, and the prices of some electrolytes were adjusted. The negative electrode material has increased steadily, the diaphragm is stable, and the price of copper foil has increased, but the processing fee remains stable
Cathode material: last Wednesday, battery grade electrolytic cobalt at the cathode raw material end rose by 0.18% to 556500 yuan / ton, and the prices of nickel, cobalt and manganese sulfate were 48500 yuan / ton, 120500 yuan / ton and 10500 yuan / ton respectively, with a weekly increase of 4.3%, 0.84% and flat respectively. The prices of ternary precursors ncm111, ncm523 and ncm622 increased by 0.92%, 0.93% and 1.22% respectively to 162500 yuan / ton, 162000 yuan / ton and 164000 yuan / ton. Lithium source prices continued to fall, including battery grade lithium carbonate, which fell 5.47% to 467000 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, and lithium hydroxide, which fell 3.97% to 471500 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. The prices of ternary cathode materials ncm523 and ncm622 fell by 1.89% to 363000 yuan / ton and remained unchanged at 395000 yuan / ton respectively; The price of precursor iron orthophosphate was flat at 25200 yuan / ton, and the price of lithium iron phosphate cathode fell by 2.41% to 162000 yuan / ton.
Electrolyte: last Saturday, the price of lithium fluorophosphate continued to fall by 4.6% to 415000 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of DMC Chinese manufacturers fell by 2.7% to 5400 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. The prices of lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, ternary cylinder 2.2ah and ternary cylinder 2.6ah electrolyte were 92800 yuan / ton, 70300 yuan / ton, 95000 yuan / ton and 110000 yuan / ton respectively, with a decrease of 4.82%, flat, 2.56% and flat on a weekly basis.
Negative electrode material: last week, the price of domestic middle-end artificial graphite was 53000 yuan / ton, up 2.91% on a weekly basis; The price of natural graphite was flat at 51000 yuan / ton.
Diaphragm: the price of mainstream diaphragm products in China remained stable last week. The weekly output of diaphragm is 196.66 million square meters, with a weekly ring ratio increase of 0.53%; The operating rate of the industry was 65.81%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points on a weekly basis. The inventory of lithium battery diaphragm manufacturers was 41.72 million square meters, down 5.76% month on month.
Battery grade copper foil: last week, driven by the price of raw materials, the price of lithium battery copper foil increased, but the increase of processing fees by enterprises lacked support, mainly maintaining stability. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, last week 8 μ M and 6 μ M the average price of mainstream market was 112000 yuan / ton and 124000 yuan / ton respectively, with a weekly increase of 1.82% and 1.64% respectively. eight μ M and 6 μ The processing fee of M battery grade copper foil was flat at 35 Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) 00 yuan / ton and 46 Bingshan Refrigeration & Heat Transfer Technologies Co.Ltd(000530) 00 yuan / ton respectively. At present, the demand of battery enterprises for the purchase of new copper foil orders is acceptable, but the actual order signing price of enterprises has fallen from the high-end quotation in the market to about the low-end price.
Downstream DRAM prices of semiconductor materials continued to fall, and flash memory prices remained stable
Last week, the semiconductor industry index in Taiwan and Philadelphia fell 0.19% and 1.27% month on week respectively; Dix index fell 0.66% mom. The downstream price fell to US $340mhz (drr1.99%). Nandflash64gb and 32GB prices were flat at $3.965 and $2.137, respectively.
Investment advice
In the short term, due to the impact of the epidemic on the industrial chain and concerns about the macroeconomic downturn, the valuation of various sectors of new materials continued to decline under the guidance of market risk sentiment. With the further rationalization of the valuations of various sectors, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the opportunities of the rare earth permanent magnet sector, which is expected to significantly increase the demand growth driven by policies in the medium and long term, and the valuation has entered the middle and low range in history. After the risk of overestimation is gradually released, the demand for carbon-based composites under the long-term growth prospect of photovoltaic installation and the increase of market capacity brought by the demand for lithium battery materials in the long-term development space of electric vehicles, And the localization progress and opportunities of semiconductor materials under the long-term trend of integrated circuit localization.
Risk tips
Price decline risk, prosperity change risk and policy change risk.
