Key investment points:
Market Review
In April 2022 (until the closing on April 26, 2022), CSI 300 rose or fell by - 10.38%, the automobile industry rose or fell by - 15.21%, and CITIC first-class 29 industry ranked 17th. In the subdivided industries, passenger cars (- 8.49%) ranked first and special purpose vehicles (- 24.07%) ranked last.
Industry Review
Automobile: the production and sales volume in March were 2241400 and 2233900 respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 23.62% and + 28.59% respectively, and a year-on-year ratio of - 8.96% and - 11.55% respectively. Affected by the epidemic, the monthly production and sales fell year-on-year.
Passenger cars: the production and sales of passenger cars were 1.8811 million and 1.8644 million respectively, with production and sales of + 22.60 and + 25.34% month on month and - 0.09% and - 0.53% year on year respectively. The chip supply improved, but the epidemic led to an overall decline. Specifically: 1) the monthly sales volume of crossover passenger cars increased year-on-year, while the monthly sales volume of cars, SUVs and MPVS decreased year-on-year, including A00 and A0 cars; The monthly sales volume of C-class SUV increased significantly year-on-year, among which the monthly sales volume of A00 car and C-class SUV was relatively good year-on-year; 2) Independent brands increased more year-on-year, German and Korean brands decreased more year-on-year, and Japanese and American brands recovered rapidly; 3) The monthly sales volume of luxury car retail continued to decline year-on-year, which was weaker than the overall performance of the passenger car market in the same period.
Commercial vehicles: the monthly production and sales of commercial vehicles were 360300 and 369600 respectively, with a month on month increase of + 29.24% and + 47.91% respectively, a year-on-year decrease of - 37.79% and - 43.27% respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of - 19.72 PCT and - 26.86 PCT respectively.
New energy vehicles: the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles were 465000 and 484000 respectively, with a month on month increase of + 26.35% and + 45.03% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of + 115.23% and + 114.35% respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles maintained a high-speed growth year-on-year.
Listed companies: the industry is greatly affected by the epidemic. Among the listed companies, GAC and Chang'an performed better year-on-year, while SAIC, Futian, JAC and Dongfeng decreased significantly year-on-year. We need to wait until the epidemic situation improves, and the overall car sales will gradually pick up.
Investment advice
In the short term: since March, the covid-19 epidemic has spread in many places, the number of locally confirmed cases and asymptomatic infections has increased, isolation measures have been taken in some key areas, automobile production and terminal sales have been greatly affected, short-term sales may decline, and the backlog consumption is expected to be released in the second half of the year. Currently, the market valuation is relatively low, and it is suggested to focus on new energy vehicles, core components with strong profitability, core parts, battery recycling businesses, and battery recycling businesses, such as: Byd Company Limited(002594) \ .
Risk tip: China's economic growth is lower than expected; Car sales are less than expected; Covid-19 pneumonia continued to spread.
