\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Matters:
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) released the first quarterly report of 2022, Q1 achieved a revenue of 32.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 17.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.6%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 17.243 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.4%.
Ping An View:
Q1 made a good start and the profit growth rate was higher than expected. 22q1 company achieved a good start and steady growth, with operating revenue + 18.4% and net profit attributable to parent company + 23.6% year-on-year, the highest growth rate in a single quarter in recent two years. By product, the revenue of Q1 Maotai liquor increased by 17.4% year-on-year to 28.86 billion, and the revenue of series liquor increased by 29.7% year-on-year to 3.428 billion. The contractual liabilities at the end of 22q1 were 8.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.4 billion yuan compared with the end of 21. Under the background of high base and consumption scenarios impacted by the epidemic, the company’s performance growth is still bright, which highlights the company’s sustained growth and operational stability as an industry leader, lays the tone for the annual acceleration, and the revenue growth target of 15% in 22 years is expected to be successfully achieved.
Sales channels have made rapid progress, and the reform of channel structure has been effective. Recently, the company has successively issued a number of measures to continuously deepen the reform of channel structure, promote channel construction and drive the optimization of product channel structure. 22q1’s direct sales channel revenue was 10.887 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 127.9%, accounting for 16.2 PCT to 33.7%; Wholesale channel revenue was 21.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 4.7%, accounting for 66.3%. March April is the off-season of Baijiu industry, and the quota only accounts for 6%-8% of the whole year. It is expected that the epidemic will have a limited impact on the whole year. According to the feedback of channel research, the current inventory of the company is at a reasonably low level, the implementation of quota is stable, the dynamic sales are basically free of pressure, and the overall channel remains benign.
The price fluctuation has gradually stabilized, and the safety cushion of price difference is guaranteed. Affected by the price fluctuation brought by the marketing reform, Maotai’s wholesale price fell sharply in March, and the price has gradually stabilized since April 10. According to the statistics of national wine finance and economics, as of April 26, the wholesale price of Feitian loose bottles was 2635 yuan / bottle, and that of boxed bottles was 2830 yuan / bottle. At present, there is still a large price difference between Feitian’s wholesale price, recommended retail price and ex factory price, which proves that Maotai is still in a tight balance between supply and demand, consumer demand is strong, and the price difference safety cushion is guaranteed.
Good cost control and improved profitability. The gross profit margin of 22q1 sales was 92.37%, year-on-year + 0.7pct; During the period, the expense rate decreased by 0.9 PCT to 7.27% year-on-year, of which the sales expense rate decreased by 0.4pct to 1.60% year-on-year, and the management expense rate increased by 0.1pct to 6.43% year-on-year. Under the dual effects of the increase of gross profit margin and the decrease of expense rate, the company’s net profit margin increased by 1.4pct to 55.59%, and its profitability continued to improve.
It made a good start, laid the tone of speed-up throughout the year and maintained the “recommended” rating. Under the effective effects of base liquor capacity release, channel reform, product structure optimization and the layout of new e-commerce platforms, the company is expected to achieve a simultaneous increase in volume and price in 22 years. We are optimistic about the long-term development ability of the company, and maintain the EPS forecast of RMB 48.94, 56.53 and 65.78 from 2022 to 2024. The current share price corresponds to pe35 4X, 30.6x, 26.3x, maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) the risk of macroeconomic weakness. Economic growth declined and consumption upgrading did not meet expectations, resulting in a slowdown in the growth of the consumer side. 2) Policy risk. The demand and tax rate of Baijiu industry are greatly affected by the policies. If the relevant policies change, it may have a great impact on the enterprise’s revenue and profit. 3) Baijiu industry prosperity downside risk. The prosperity of Baijiu industry is highly correlated with the price trend. If the price of Baijiu drops, the growth of enterprise revenue may slow down significantly. 4) The risk of epidemic aggravation. Under the aggravation of the epidemic, the consumption scenes of Baijiu are reduced, which may have an impact on the prosperity of Baijiu industry.
