\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 438 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) )
Event: the company released the performance reports for 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 63.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.64%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.208 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.5%; The non net profit deducted was 8.486 billion yuan, an increase of 252.4%. In the first quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 24.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 132.5%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.194 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 513.01%, and a deduction of non net profit of 5.135 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 544.95%.
High profitability will be maintained throughout 2021, and the outlook is expected to be maintained in 2022. In 2021, all silicon production bases of the company operated at full capacity, and the annual sales volume was 107700 tons, an increase of 24.30% over the previous year. The annual average price was about 175000 yuan / ton, and the profit per ton reached a record high of nearly 80000 yuan. We expect that silicon materials will remain in tight balance between supply and demand in 2022, the average price of silicon materials in the whole year will maintain the level in 2021, and the profitability will be further improved.
The production capacity continued to expand, and the sales volume of silicon materials reached a new high in the first quarter. 51000 tons of Leshan phase II (including 1000 tons of electronic grade) and 50000 tons of Baoshan phase I have been put into operation. At present, the total production capacity has reached 180000 tons, ranking first in the industry. 22q1 began to gradually contribute to the increment of new production capacity, and the sales volume in the first quarter reached 48000 tons, a record high. The company’s current projects under construction have a total capacity of 170000 tons, of which the 50000 ton project of Baotou phase II is expected to be put into operation in 2022 and the 120000 ton project of Leshan phase III is expected to be put into operation in 2023. At that time, the company’s capacity will reach 350000 tons. We believe that the company’s production capacity is the first to contribute to the output increment, and the subsequent production capacity will ensure the stability of the company’s silicon material performance.
The capacity expansion of battery cells has accelerated, and the battery capacity has increased at the same time. At the end of 2021, the company’s battery capacity was 45gw, the annual sales volume reached 31gw, and the sales volume in the first quarter reached 9.4gw, a record high. The expansion of the company’s battery capacity is accelerated, and it is expected to reach 70 and 102gw respectively by the end of 22 and 23. At present, the company’s large-scale capacity of 210mm and 182mm is in a trend of comprehensive coverage. The conversion efficiency of single crystal perc products has exceeded 23.5%, and the average non silicon cost of products has been reduced to less than 0.18 yuan / W. We believe that the imbalance of the upstream and downstream capacity structure of the industrial chain and the uncertainty of the expansion of new battery technology will lead to the tight supply of large-scale battery capacity in 22 years and the strong certainty of battery profit repair. The leading position of the company’s capacity scale is stable, which fully ensures the company’s large-size battery shipping capacity, and the profit of battery business is expected to rise further.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is expected that the supply and demand of silicon materials will be in tight balance in 2022, and the price of silicon materials will continue to maintain a high level. In the future, the profitability of the battery industry will improve. We will raise the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 to 16.4 billion yuan, maintain the target price of 79.5 yuan and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the high price of silicon material will affect the downstream installation demand; The risk that the company’s new silicon material and battery capacity are not put into operation as planned.
