\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 50 Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) )
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.585 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 106.47%. Benefiting from the accelerated production expansion and large-scale bidding of power battery plant, the prosperity of photovoltaic, 3C, intelligent logistics and other industries continues, and the company's revenue and order scale grow rapidly. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 10.037 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.47%. In 2022q1, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.926 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 142.41%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 346 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.5%. In 2021, the newly signed orders reached 18.7 billion yuan (excluding tax), a year-on-year increase of 69.03%, reaching a new record; In 2022q1, the company's inventory increased by 107% year-on-year, and the contract liabilities increased by 69% year-on-year. The company has sufficient orders on hand, and the growth of annual performance in 2022 is highly deterministic.
The net interest rate increased significantly in 2021; 2022q1 profitability is under pressure, but it is expected to improve throughout the year. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 34.05%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.27pcts, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of intelligent logistics systems with low gross profit margin; The expense rate during the period was 16.89%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.50pcts; The net interest rate was 15.79%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.69pcts, and the profitability was significantly improved under the scale effect. The gross profit margin of 2022q1 was 30.80%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.41pcts, but basically the same as that of 2021q4; The net interest rate was 11.84%, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.79 PCTs and a month on month decrease of 2.37 PCTs. We judged that it was mainly due to the high proportion of intelligent logistics system revenue in the first quarter, the slow confirmation revenue of order delivery affected by the epidemic and the cost advance caused by capacity expansion. Looking forward to the whole year, we believe that the company will still maintain strong profitability: 1) the production expansion of battery plant has been significantly accelerated, and lithium battery equipment has entered the "seller's market"; 2) Previously, the company's substantial expansion of production led to the advance of expenses, and the future scale effect will be gradually reflected with the recognition of income; 3) Improve management and operation efficiency, and the per capita output value is expected to further increase. The downstream continued high prosperity, the superimposed profitability was enhanced, and the elastic space of net profit was increased; 4) The operation of subsidiary Titan continues to improve, and the gross profit margin of intelligent logistics system is expected to improve.
The lithium battery equipment leader with the strength of the whole line benefits from the accelerated expansion of production in the downstream. The driving factors at the supply side promote the large-scale popularization of new energy vehicles to endogenous drive. It is estimated that the global penetration rate will be 21% in 2025, corresponding to the installed capacity of power batteries of 1189gwh. In the medium and short term, based on the capacity demand of power batteries, the average annual demand for lithium battery equipment will exceed 100 billion yuan from 2021 to 2025. In the steady state, we estimate that the annual demand for capacity depreciation and renewal alone is expected to reach 100 billion yuan. As a global leader in lithium battery equipment, the company has the strength of the whole line and is deeply bound with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , northvolt and other battery factories outside China, which will continue to benefit from the accelerated production expansion of the downstream. High R & D investment continues to be realized. The company's coating machine has entered the leading battery enterprise, and the roller press has achieved batch supply. The cumulative market share of laminating machine exceeds 50%.
The platform layout is gradually taking shape to create a second growth curve. In the special equipment industry, lithium battery equipment is a rare field where there are 100 billion level large market value companies. Based on lithium battery equipment, the company is moving towards a platform type non-standard equipment company: 1) expand new business with the synergy of technology, products and customers; 2) By virtue of the company's advantages in scale, R & D and services, the market share has been rapidly increased. The business of intelligent logistics, 3C, automobile intelligent production line and hydrogen energy has made good progress, and the layout of platform type is receiving results. In the photovoltaic field, the company's TOPCON high-efficiency battery equipment and high-speed series welding machine have reached the global leading level. Combined with the independently developed MES system, it can create an "unmanned workshop" for photovoltaic enterprises. In the field of hydrogen energy, the company has made continuous breakthroughs in MEA preparation, BPP production line, PEM preparation, stack / system test activation, water electrolytic reactor production and test equipment, and realized the integrated layout from fuel cell manufacturing to testing.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the company will achieve a revenue of 16.5 billion yuan / 22.032 billion yuan / 28.839 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.672 billion yuan / 3.857 billion yuan / 5.336 billion yuan in 202224. The current price earnings ratio corresponding to the stock price is 24x / 17x / 12x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Product and technology iterations are less than expected, downstream customer expansion is less than expected, capacity expansion is less than expected, and new business expansion is less than expected.
