\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 345 Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) )
Event: the company released the 21st Annual Report and the 22nd quarterly report. In the 21st year, the company achieved a revenue of 9.272 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.12%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 682 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 3.176 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.06%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 188 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 16.11%. 22q1 company achieved an operating revenue of 2.339 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.16%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 204 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.65%.
Under the epidemic, the short-term growth rate of the company’s income slowed down, and the performance of dish products was brilliant. In Q1-Q4, the company’s revenue in each quarter was + 47.35% / 27.68% / 34.92% / 28.06% year-on-year. Q4 still maintained steady growth under the condition of high base in the same period. 22q1 company achieved an operating revenue of 2.339 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.16%, and the growth rate slowed down. We expect that the main reasons are: 1) the repeated epidemic in the first quarter affected the logistics capacity and downstream catering to a certain extent; 2) Weather factors affect downstream demand; 3) The base in the same period last year was relatively high. In terms of products, in 2021, the operating revenue of flour and rice products / meat products / surimi products / dishes products was RMB 20.54/21.42/34.78/1.429 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 23.60% / 19.16% / 23.07% / 112.41%. Among them, the sales volume of flour and rice products / meat products / surimi products / dishes products was + 23.44% / + 18.38% / + 21.24% / + 50.91% respectively. 22q1, the operating revenue of flour and rice products / meat products / surimi products / dish products was 5.1/4.8/7.5/520 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 16.59% / 0.04% / 1.30% / 129.88%. The growth rate of dish products was brilliant. Under the epidemic, the growth rate of hot pot products slowed down, and the growth rate of rice and flour products as livelihood guarantee products remained stable. According to the sales model, in 2021, dealers / supermarkets / special communications direct sales / e-commerce channels increased by 31.57% / 9.53% / 173.41% / 101.65% year-on-year; 22q1 dealers / supermarkets / special communications direct sales / e-commerce channels increased by 18.63% / – 0.74% / 295.06% / 138.11% year-on-year. The growth rate of dealer channels was stable, and the growth rate of supermarkets slowed down under the reduction of overall passenger flow. In 2021, the company strengthened the channel sinking, and the number of dealers increased from 738 to 1652, and the number of 22q1 dealers increased from 38 to 1681.
Under the pressure of cost, the profit is under short-term pressure, and the profitability is expected to improve quarter by quarter. The company achieved a net interest rate of 7.41% in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 1.26pcts, and a net interest rate of 8.96% in 22q1, a year-on-year decrease of 0.26pct. We expect that due to the continuous rise in the prices of main raw materials, oil and flour, the company’s increased promotion and the low gross profit margin of frozen products processing, the gross profit margin is under certain pressure, and the gross profit margin will be 22.12% in 21 years, a year-on-year decrease of 3.56pcts; 22q1 gross profit margin was 24.2%, down 2.29pcts year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company of Q1-Q4 changed by 97.83% / 1.19% / 22.44% / – 16.11% year-on-year, and Q4 decreased significantly. The net profit attributable to the parent company of 22q1 was 204 million yuan, up + 17.65% year-on-year. The sales / management / R & D expense ratio of the company in the past 21 years was 9.15% / 3.45% / 0.95% respectively, with a year-on-year change of – 0.1 / – 0.8 / – 0.11pct. The sales expense ratio of the company remained stable in the past 21 years. Due to the low cost of supermarket channels due to the epidemic in the same period of 20 years, we expect the company to increase the investment in marketing expenses in order to expand market share; 22q1 sales / management / R & D expense rates were 10.31% / 3.04% / 0.88% respectively, with a year-on-year change of -0.68 / -0.33 / -0.02pct, and the expense rate narrowed.
The logic of the dishes sector continues to be deduced, and we are optimistic about the development of the prefabricated dishes sector. In the short term, the company is still under certain pressure due to the impact of the epidemic and costs. The growth rate of hot pot products slows down, but the growth rate of pasta and dishes products is fast, and the performance is expected to maintain steady growth. In addition, the company’s 21q4 price increase transmission completes the hedging cost pressure. At the same time, we expect the company to improve efficiency through cost narrowing and technological transformation, and the profit margin is expected to improve. In the long run, with the steady growth of downstream demand and the continuous release of production capacity, we expect that the company’s hot pot ingredients and pastry products are expected to maintain a normal growth rate, and the growth rate of dish products is rapid in recent years. The company continues to increase its layout in the field of prefabricated dishes through acquisition, investment and plant construction, which is expected to achieve rapid development.
Profit forecast: according to the adjustment of the company’s profit forecast according to the first quarterly report, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 11.614145.75/18.513 billion yuan in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year increase of 25.26% / 25.49% / 27.02% (the value before 22-23 is 23.17% / 21.81%), a net profit of 901 / 1191 / 1592 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32.04% / 32.17% / 33.74% (the value before 22-23 + 38.23% / 36.61%), and EPS of 3.07/4.06/5.43 yuan respectively, maintaining the company’s “buy” rating
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk; Food safety risks; Covid-19 epidemic risk; Risk of rising costs; The growth rate of prefabricated dishes was lower than expected
