\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 157 Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) )
Deduct non net profit to a new high, tap the potential for transformation and new growth, and maintain the “overweight” rating
The company released an annual report. In 2021, it achieved a revenue of 27.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.3%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 76.3%, and a deduction of non net profit of 760 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 291.2%. At the same time, the company released its first quarterly report. In 2022, Q1 achieved a revenue of 7.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42.0%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 330 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 41.8%, and a deduction of non net profit of 310 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 155.7%. Due to the high income of large debt restructuring in 2020, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased year-on-year in 2021. Excluding the impact of non operating projects, benefiting from the rise of coking coal volume and price, the non net profit deducted by the company increased year-on-year. We raised the profit forecast and added the forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1.37 (former value 10.8) / 15.7 (former value 11.4) / 1.79 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.8% / 14.2% / 14.3%; EPS is 0.06/0.07/0.08 yuan, corresponding to 24.0/21.0/18.4 times of the current share price PE. Coal prices at home and abroad remain high, coking coal demand continues to improve, the company’s profit is expected to improve, and maintain the “overweight” rating.
The volume and price of coking coal have risen simultaneously, the cost of power business is under pressure, and the mutual subsidy and deduction of coal and power is not a high increase in performance
Coking coal business: the coal produced by the company is high-quality main coking coal and blended coking coal. In 2021, the coking coal production capacity is 9.9 million tons / year, the output / sales volume is 10.74 million tons / 10.71 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.2% / + 3.7%. The production and sales volume increases slightly, the selling price is 1010 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 80.3%, and the gross profit is 590 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 152.1% (absolute value + 356 yuan / ton). In Q1 2022, the company’s coking coal sales volume was 2.206 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.1%, the selling price was 1232 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 89.1%, and the gross profit was 746 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 126.3%. The simultaneous rise of coking coal volume and price boosted the company’s deduction of non performance. Coking coal is priced by the market and less affected by policies. It is a scarce coal resource with little new capacity. Australia has a long-term shortage of main coking coal. With the steady growth policy, the international coal price remains high, the supply of coking coal is tight, the price rise is expected to continue, and the company’s coking coal profit is expected to be further improved. Electricity business: in 2021, the company sold 29.63 billion kwh of electricity, with a year-on-year increase of – 6.7%. The selling price was 394 yuan / MWh and the gross profit was – 22 yuan / MWh. The rising price of power coal put pressure on the cost of electricity business. With the implementation of the annual long-term association for power coal (570 ~ 770 yuan / ton) and the reform of the market-oriented mechanism of on grid electricity price for coal-fired power generation (the benchmark price + fluctuation shall not exceed 20%), the cost fluctuation of power business is expected to be greatly reduced, the power price is expected to be increased, and the performance of the company’s power sector is expected to be released smoothly.
Deep cultivation of main business & new energy transformation contributes to new growth
Haizetan coal mine: the approved production capacity is 6 million tons, the equity production capacity is 4.2 million tons, and the proved reserves reach 1.14 billion tons. It is expected to obtain the mining license by the end of June 2022. Shale gas: shale gas exploration has achieved results, and 3885 m3 / D shale gas flow has been obtained from fracturing gas test. Aluminum under coal: seize the pilot opportunity of “co mining of coal and aluminum resources” in Shanxi, and preliminarily investigate more than 100 million tons of aluminum resources under coal. New energy: cooperate with the Three Gorges group, the national energy group, Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited(601727) etc. to promote smart energy, energy storage and new energy projects. It is estimated that the scale of energy storage and new energy projects will reach 10 million kW in 2030.
Risk warning: the economic recovery is not as expected; Coal prices fell more than expected; The production capacity of coal coke industry is too large
