\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Performance summary:
It was announced that in 2022q1, the revenue was 33.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, the net profit was 17.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, and the gross profit margin increased by 0.7 percentage points to 92.6%.
The performance in the first quarter was higher than the previous forecast (the forecast was 16.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 19%). According to the previously published data from January to February, the revenue in March was about 13 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, and the net profit was about 7.05 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 29%. The company successfully made a good start in 2022. During the reporting period, the revenue of Maotai liquor was 28.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, and the revenue of series liquor was 3.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30%, all of which performed well, mainly benefiting from the price increase of some products in the first quarter, the continuous volume of new series liquor and direct sales channels.
From the perspective of channels, the direct sales revenue in the first quarter was 10.89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 128%, and the proportion of revenue increased to 33.7%. Direct sales and non-standard volume also drove the ton price rise during the reporting period, with the corresponding gross profit margin increased by 0.7 percentage points to 92.6% year-on-year. Since the official self-supporting platform “I Maotai” was put into trial operation on March 31, consumers have been enthusiastic. According to relevant media reports, as of April 18, the “I Maotai” has been online for 19 days, with more than 10 million registered users, nearly 50 million people participated in the purchase, and 25000 bottles of tiger Mao and other products have been put into use.
In terms of expenses, the comprehensive expense rate decreased slightly by 0.84 percentage points to 7.08% in the first quarter. Among them, the sales expense rate decreased by 0.42 percentage points to 1.6%, the financial expense rate decreased by 0.53 percentage points to – 1.01%, and the management expense rate and R & D expense rate increased slightly.
At present, the price of Maotai liquor is basically stable, with about 2600 yuan for spare parts and 2800 yuan for the original box. After “I Maotai” is put on the shelf, it has a certain impact on the price of non-standard products such as tiger grass. On the other hand, it also shows that the initiative of the company’s terminal management ability has been improved, which is in line with the concept of current market-oriented reform. In the long run, it also helps to improve the bottle opening rate and social destocking.
At the end of the first quarter, the balance of contract liabilities was 8.32 billion yuan, up 55.8% year-on-year. The direct selling platform continued to increase. Under the background of the company’s accelerated market reform, although the second quarter was affected by the epidemic and entered the off-season of Baijiu consumption, with the improvement of the epidemic and the recovery of high-end Baijiu consumption scene, the performance is expected to maintain steady growth. Maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit will be 61.26 billion and 69.72 billion respectively from 2022 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 16.8% and 13.8% respectively. The EPS will be 48.77 yuan and 55.50 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 36 times and 31 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” investment proposal.
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic is repeated, and the marketing reform is less than expected
