\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 460 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) )
Events
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022 on the evening of April 26. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 5.365 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 233.91%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.525 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 640.41%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 3.103 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 956.40%; EPS was 2.45 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 580.56%.
Commentary
It is estimated that the net profit per ton of Q1 lithium salt is 133000 yuan, and the performance elasticity appears. Q1 company deducted the non attributable net profit of 3.1 billion yuan, up 110% month on month. The non recurring profit and loss of 420 million yuan was mainly from the changes in fair value of Pilbara shares held. Excluding the equity incentive cost of RMB 80 million and the battery business of about RMB 100 million in Q1, the net profit of Q1 lithium salt is about RMB 2.92 billion. It is estimated that the sales volume of Q1 lithium salt is about 22000 tons, and the net profit per ton of Q1 lithium salt products is about RMB 133000. The average price of lithium carbonate in Q1 was 423000 yuan / ton, up 101% month on month in Q4; The average price of lithium hydroxide in Q1 was 390000 yuan / ton, up 105% month on month compared with Q4. Benefiting from the rising price, the performance flexibility of the company appears.
The global layout of the resource side continued to advance. Marion is put into operation ahead of schedule. It is expected to expand its production to Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of concentrate (4% - 6%) in April and 900000 tons of concentrate (4% - 6%) at the end of the year. The company's acquisition of 50% equity of goulamina has been completed. Goulamina phase I project plans to produce 506000 tons of 6% lithium concentrate per year. The company invests in Shanghai jujingui convertible bonds and can hold 80% of songshugang tantalum niobium mica project after maturity, with a resource of about 1.5 million tons of LCE. It is estimated that the company's resource self-sufficiency rate will increase to 52% and 60% in 22-23 years.
The 25-year capacity target is 300000 tons of LCE, and the growth of lithium industry leader can be expected. At present, the company has a capacity of 43000 tons of lithium carbonate, 81000 tons of lithium hydroxide and 2150 tons of metal lithium. Capacity under construction: 40000 tons of lithium carbonate in Co salt lake phase I is expected to be put into operation in the second half of the year, and 20000 tons of lithium hydroxide are planned in Sonora phase I. The company plans to form a smelting capacity with a total annual output of 300000 tons of LCE in 25 years, and form a lithium product supply capacity of no less than Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of LCE in the long term. The growth is worth looking forward to.
Profit forecast & investment suggestions
It is estimated that the high price of lithium in 22 years will be highly deterministic, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 years will be increased by 24%. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 13.02 billion yuan, 13.14 billion yuan and 15.8 billion yuan respectively, EPS will be 9.1 yuan, 9.1 yuan and 11.0 yuan respectively, and PE will be 10 times, 10 times and 8 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The uncertainty of lithium salt price trend in the later stage increases; The growth rate of lithium salt demand was lower than expected.
