\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 438 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) )
Event: the company issued the annual report of 2021 and the report of the first quarter of 2022.
Continued to benefit from the tight supply and demand of silicon materials, and the profit of polysilicon leader increased significantly. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 63.491 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.64%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.208 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.50%. Among them, 107700 tons of polysilicon were shipped, a year-on-year increase of 24.30%, and nearly 35gw of batteries and components were shipped, a year-on-year increase of 57.61%. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 24.685 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 132.49%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.194 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 513.01%. Among them, the single quarter capacity of polysilicon business was 40800 tons (163200 tons per year), and the quarterly shipment was 48000 tons. Since the beginning of the year, due to the continuous tight supply and demand of polysilicon materials, the weekly public quotation counted by the silicon industry branch has increased for 14 consecutive days, and the turnover of single crystal compact materials has reached 250.9 yuan / kg, Bring a substantial increase in the profit of polysilicon material business.
Continue to promote the cost reduction and efficiency increase of silicon materials, and consolidate the advantages of cost and quality moat. According to the official account of Tongwei group, the comprehensive power consumption of the 51000 ton silicon material project of Yongxiang new energy phase II has been reduced to less than 45kwh/kg Si, the thermal energy consumption has been reduced to 0, the unit consumption of silicon has been reduced to 1.04, and the quality has been improved to above electronic level II. It has greatly refreshed the industry’s advanced indicators, which is expected to further promote the reduction of the total cost of silicon material production. In addition, Leshan phase III project under construction is the company’s first single project with an annual output of more than 100000 tons. It has lower unit investment cost, better process design and higher intelligent level, which will further consolidate the company’s quality and cost advantages.
Accelerate the expansion of silicon material production and continuously improve the market share. In terms of silicon material expansion, the company’s current projects under construction have a total capacity of 170000 tons, of which the 50000 ton project in Baotou phase II is expected to be put into operation in 2022 and the 120000 ton project in Leshan phase III is expected to be put into operation in 2023. According to the company’s announcement on the implementation progress and follow-up planning of high purity crystalline silicon and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery business development plan (hereinafter referred to as the “plan”), the company’s polysilicon production capacity will reach 180000 tons, 230000 tons and 350000 tons respectively from 2021 to 2023, which will be further increased on the basis of the production capacity planning target formulated at the beginning of 2020, and the market share is expected to further increase
The expansion of battery production consolidated the leading position, and the n-type new technology remained the industry leader. According to the plan, from 2021 to 2023, the company’s battery production capacity will reach 45, 70 and 102gw respectively, realizing a significant increase. In terms of new technology layout, the company has built TOPCON and hjtgw production lines respectively, and the conversion efficiency exceeds 24.5% and 25% respectively, realizing the leading position in the industry, which is expected to continue to maintain the leading position of battery manufacturers.
Performance forecast: the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 18.151/18.011/18.468 billion from 2022 to 2024, corresponding to 9.1/9.1/8.9 times the PE valuation, and maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the industry demand is less than expected, and the company’s production capacity is not as expected.
