\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 258 Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 22 years. In Q1 of 22 years, the company realized a revenue of 2.613 billion yuan, yoy + 76.32%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 534 million yuan, yoy + 142.02%, which was in line with the previous performance express.
The company is the leader of glyphosate and Chloropyridine herbicides in China, with obvious R & D strength and production capacity advantages. With the combined use of glyphosate and glufosinate and the prohibition of paraquat, the demand for glufosinate is expected to continue to grow, with great follow-up development potential. The long-term growth of the company is guaranteed, and the company is rated as “buy”.
The volume and price of glufosinate increased simultaneously, and the company’s profit increased: the company’s performance increased significantly, mainly due to the simultaneous rise of the volume and price of its main products. The average price of Q1 glufosinate reached 256900 yuan / ton in 22 years, yoy + 45% and qoq-28%. Although it decreased month on month, it was still at a high level, and the company’s profit was thickened. In addition, the company’s Guang’an base continued to improve the project of methyl phosphorus dichloride, and the company’s production capacity increased significantly. The 22 year business plan of the company is to realize the full and normal production of methyl phosphorus dichloride project in Guang’an base, and the performance of the company is expected to be further improved. Glufosinate is an organophosphorus herbicide and one of the three non selective herbicides in the world. With the continuous expansion of the global ban and restriction of paraquat, the continuous problem of glyphosate resistance and the promotion and use of transgenic technology, the demand for glufosinate is released rapidly.
The gross profit margin increased year-on-year, and the cost control was effective: benefiting from the rise in the price of glyphosate, the gross profit margin of the company increased by 5.79 PCT year-on-year to 34.18%. At the same time, the cost control ability of the company was significantly improved. In 2012, the R & D cost rate in Q1 decreased by 0.98 PCT year-on-year to 2.40%, the sales cost rate decreased by 0.19 PCT year-on-year to 1.19%, the management cost rate decreased by 0.74 PCT year-on-year to 2.91%, and the financial cost rate decreased by 0.14 PCT year-on-year to 0.
Expand production, innovate and consolidate the leading position: as a leading enterprise of glufosinate in China, the company continues to carry out technology research and development, takes the lead in mastering the production technology of refined glufosinate and planning production capacity. PMG is the effective component of PMG and the development direction of PMG industry in the future. At present, 3000 tons of refined glyphosate in Guang’an base is in the trial production stage, and the subsequent Mianyang base also plans to produce 30000 tons of refined glyphosate. With the gradual advancement of methyl phosphorus dichloride and PMIDA projects, the leading position of the company has been further consolidated.
Profit forecast: grain prices are rising and the boom cycle of agrochemical industry is coming. We revised our profit forecast. It is expected that the company will realize a net profit of 1.2911472 billion yuan in 2022 / 2023, yoy + 20% / + 14%, equivalent to EPS of 1.74/1.99 yuan. At present, the PE corresponding to the A-share price is 11 / 10 times. The company’s main product glyphosate has great development potential in the future. We are optimistic about its future growth prospects and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: 1. The product price is lower than expected; 2. The production of new projects is not as expected.
