\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 390 Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: in 2021], the company achieved a revenue of 2.678 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.53%; Net profit attributable to parent 2. 8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.40%; Deduct non net profit of 245 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.69%; EPS 3.18 yuan. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 650 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.16%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 09 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 86.54%; Deduct non net profit of 05 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 92%, and EPS of 0.11 yuan.
The sales volume of inverters maintained a high growth, and the profits in overseas advantageous markets were relatively stable. In 2021, the company’s inverter sales continued the high growth trend, with an annual sales volume of 508000 units, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%. Among them, 447200 grid connected inverters were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 35.49%; 60700 energy storage inverters were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 154.01%. The proportion of energy storage inverter sales increased from 6.3% in 2020 to 12% in 2021. The high growth of sales volume drives the rapid growth of revenue. In 2021, the revenue of grid connected inverter was 1.954 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.28%; The revenue of energy storage products (including a small number of new businesses of energy storage batteries) was 478 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 201.28%. 22q1 company sold about 110000 inverters, including about 30000 energy storage inverters, with a year-on-year increase of more than 300%. The company’s energy storage inverter is mainly oriented to overseas markets, and its profitability is stronger than that of grid connected inverter. In 2021, in the traditional European advantageous market, the gross profit margin reached 47.24%.
The decline in profits in the first quarter was mainly affected by the substantial increase in expenses during the period. The comprehensive gross profit margin of 22q1 company was 30.12%, which was 3.6pp higher than that of 21q4; The net interest rate was 1.12%, down 5.7pp from 21q4. The decline in profitability was mainly due to the substantial increase in period expenses. The period expense rate of 22q1 company was 28.16%, an increase of about 7.8pp month on month. Among them, the ratio of R & D expenses and sales expenses increased significantly. In 22q1, R & D expenses increased by 139.9% year-on-year, and the ratio of R & D expenses increased to 10.46%; The sales expense increased by 99.67% year-on-year, and the sales expense ratio increased to 10.50%. With the achievement transformation of R & D and channel investment, the revenue will continue to grow, the expense rate will be diluted, and the profitability will recover.
The new business of energy storage battery and household system has been steadily promoted, and the supporting inverter business has formed a synergistic effect. During the reporting period, the company established Yude new energy, a holding subsidiary, and laid out household photovoltaic systems; Launch two energy storage lithium battery products. The energy storage battery and household system can be matched with the company’s energy storage inverter and inverter products, cooperate with the company’s advantageous inverter business, further improve the inverter shipment and market share, and also bring new points of performance.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: the company’s profit in 22 years is expected to be repaired, and the new business of energy storage battery and system will gradually contribute to the profit. It is estimated that the CAGR of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in the next three years will be 62.74%, maintaining the “hold” rating.
Risk warning: the global PV installed capacity is less than expected; The price of raw materials rises and the profitability of the company decreases; Risk of exchange rate fluctuation; Risks of policy changes.
