\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 906 Foryou Corporation(002906) )
Event overview: the company released the annual report of 2021 and the quarterly report of Q1 in 2022: the operating revenue in 2021 was 4.488 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.01%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 9.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of RMB 6.49 billion; The net profit after non deduction was 259 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 117.71%, which was close to the upper limit of the notice. In Q1 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.23%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 69 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.57%; The net profit after non deduction was 65 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.69%.
In the past 21 years, all businesses have shown steady growth, and the growth of sales volume of core customers has promoted the month on month improvement of Q4 performance. In terms of business, in 2021, the revenue of automotive electronics, precision die casting, LED lighting and precision electronic components was 2.946 billion yuan, 938 million yuan, 163 million yuan and 344 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 39.88%, 47.55%, 15.31% and - 12.26% respectively. Among them, automotive electronics and precision die casting business performed well: 1) automotive electronics: while deeply cultivating the original customers, actively expand the customers of new energy vehicles and overseas main engine plants, including new projects of customers such as Chang'an Ford, Beijing Hyundai and stellantis group; 2) Precision die casting: successfully imported new projects of Byd Company Limited(002594) , Continental, BorgWarner and other customers, among which orders related to new energy vehicles and automotive electronics (HUD, lidar, millimeter wave radar, etc.) increased. In terms of gross profit margin, the company's sales gross profit margin in 2021 was 21.57%, down 2.05 PCT year-on-year, of which automotive electronics and precision die casting decreased by 1.91 PCT and 5.00 PCT year-on-year respectively. The main reason is that the freight generated in the contract is included in the cost due to the impact of accounting standards, which affects the gross profit margin. However, the reduction of corresponding cost side and the deepening of superposition control (the fourth rate decreased by 2.38 PCT, up to 15.63%), As a result, the growth rate of the company's net profit far exceeded the growth rate of revenue. In a single quarter, 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 1.357 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.09% and a month on month increase of 25.66%. We judge that it is due to the impact of the shortage of chip supply chain and replenishment of inventory, the growth of sales volume of the company's core customers and the increase of product market share.
The performance of Q1 in 22 years exceeded expectations from two perspectives. 1) From the perspective of revenue: 2022q1 company achieved revenue of 1.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.23% and a month on month decrease of only 11.61%. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the year-on-year growth of China's passenger car production in 2022q1 was only 10.85%, and the growth rate of the company's revenue was significantly better than the average level of the car market; From a month on month perspective, under the influence of the epidemic situation + lack of core + Spring Festival in Q1, China's passenger car production fell sharply from 2021q4 to - 18.59%, while the decline rate of the company's revenue was significantly lower than the industry average, reflecting a significant improvement α Attributes; 2) From the perspective of net profit margin: in 2022q1, the company's net profit margin on sales reached 5.82%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.13pct. We think it is higher than expected. The reason is that from the cost side, under the great impact of global core shortage in 2022q1, the company's gross profit margin on sales can still maintain 21.98%, with a year-on-year decrease of only 1.03pct (it is worth noting that the real impact of global core shortage began in 2021q2); On the cost side, in 2022q1, the company's R & D investment reached 105 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 53.79%. On the basis of continuing the impact of high investment + lack of core, the company can still maintain the relative stability of net interest rate, which also exceeded the general expectation of the market.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 449 / 562 / 755 million yuan in 22-24 years, and the current market value corresponds to 29 / 23 times of PE in 22 / 23 years. We believe that the company has high-quality customers and obvious advantages in automotive electronics and precision die casting, so we maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the impact of fluctuations in the global auto market; Supply recovery is less than expected; Business progress is less than expected.
