\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 95 Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) )
Slaughtering and meat products business is flexible and maintains the “overweight” rating
Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) 2022q1 achieved a total revenue of 13.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.34%. We maintain the profit forecast for 20222024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 6.23 billion yuan, 7.02 billion yuan and 7.76 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 1.80, 2.03 and 2.24 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 17.3, 15.4 and 13.9 times respectively. The company has a high dividend rate and maintains the “overweight” rating.
The slaughter volume increased significantly, and the volume of fresh products increased simultaneously
The slaughter volume in 2022q1 increased significantly year-on-year; Sales of fresh frozen meat increased by 6.6% year-on-year. In 2022q1, the pure slaughtering business continued to recover, the slaughtering volume increased significantly, the profit of fresh products also increased significantly, and both volume and profit increased. However, due to the downward trend of pig prices, the revenue of the slaughtering department in 2022q1 decreased by 37.1% year-on-year. The profit of the slaughtering Department decreased by 52.8% year-on-year, mainly due to: (1) the high profit base of imported meat in 2021q1; (2) The impact of unrealized profits from the inventory of raw and fresh meat sold to the meat products segment. Looking forward to 2022, the pure slaughtering business will continue to recover and the measurable profits will rise simultaneously; The profit of frozen products can be further improved when the price of 2022h2 pigs goes up and down.
In 2022q1, the ton profit of meat products increased, and the business elasticity of meat products was greater under the downward cost
The total external sales volume of meat products (including poultry products) of 2022q1 company was 760000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. In 2022q1, the sales volume of meat products decreased by 2.5%. The decline in sales volume was mainly affected by the control of the epidemic situation and strict sealing control in some regions, which had a great impact on logistics distribution. In 2022q1, the business income of meat products was 6.797 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%. In 2022q1, the operating profit was about 1.751 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.9%. The main reasons for the increase in ton profit were: (1) the product structure was good during the Spring Festival, and the sales volume of high-profit products was large; (2) The cost of main raw materials such as pigs is low. Looking forward to 2022, it is expected that the pig price will show a trend of low before and high after, but the overall annual average price is low. With the epidemic easing and logistics recovery, the company will: (1) adhere to structural adjustment; (2) Develop new tracks such as frozen products, convenient fast food and prefabricated dishes; (3) Improve the operation quality of outlets; (4) Increase market investment; (5) Marketing innovation, team management innovation, etc. Sales of meat products are expected to grow steadily. The cost is low, and the annual ton profit is expected to remain at a high level.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, market expansion less than expected, raw material price fluctuation risk, etc.
