\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. 22q1 achieved a revenue of 32.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 17.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.6%. 22q1's revenue met expectations and its profit exceeded market expectations.
Maotai liquor and series liquor are driven by two wheels, and the proportion of direct sales has increased significantly. 1. The revenue of 22q1 Maotai liquor was 28.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.4%. It is expected that the volume and price of 22q1 Maotai liquor will rise simultaneously, and the increase in ton price will mainly benefit from the increase in the price of non-standard liquor and the proportion of direct sales; The revenue of series liquor was 3.43 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 29.7%. 22q1 contributed to the price increase of series liquor, and Maotai 1935 contributed a new increment. The series liquor continued to grow at a high speed. 2. The company continued to increase the amount of direct sales channels such as self operated stores and exclusive stores, and transferred some traditional distribution channel quotas to the "I Maotai" digital marketing app. The revenue of 22q1 direct sales channels was 10.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 127.9%. The proportion of direct sales channels increased by 11.1 percentage points to 33.7% compared with 2021, and the channel structure continued to be optimized.
Profitability reached a new high and cash flow continued to improve. 1. The gross profit margin of 22q1 increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to 92.6%, mainly due to the increase in the price of non-standard liquor and the proportion of direct sales; The company achieved remarkable results in cost control and efficiency improvement. The overall expense rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 7.1%, of which the sales expense rate and management expense rate decreased by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points respectively, the gross profit margin increased, the superimposed expense rate decreased, the net profit margin increased by 1.5 percentage points to 54.1% year-on-year, and the profitability reached a new high. 2. In terms of cash flow, the sales revenue of 22q1 company was 31.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%. At the end of the first quarter, the contract liabilities were 8.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 55.8%. The cash flow continued to improve.
We are optimistic about the continuous growth of reform throughout the year. 1. In 2022, the company successively launched two heavy new products, Maotai and Maotai 1935, especially Maotai 1935, which filled the vacancy of 1000 yuan price of the company and will effectively undertake the spillover value of Feitian Maotai. It is expected that Maotai 1935 will put in 20 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) tons throughout the year, which will significantly stimulate the growth of series of liquor; 2. The company has steadily promoted the reform of the channel system. In March 22, it launched the "I Maotai" digital marketing app and sold the first batch of four products (excluding Pufei). Self operated e-commerce has played multiple roles in enhancing price control, suppressing speculation and driving the increase of ton price, marking an important step in Maotai digital marketing system. 3. Adhering to the "five line development path" and the "five in one marketing method", the company has defined the development tone of 22 years of great strides and high quality. At present, the product matrix is improving day by day, market-oriented reform continues to be implemented, and the annual revenue growth target of 15% is actively planned, which is expected to be completed calmly and with high quality; The management of the company is determined to forge ahead. Under the optimization of governance, it will release the growth potential to the greatest extent and enter a new era of high-quality development.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 50.16 yuan, 59.22 yuan and 69.46 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 35 times, 29 times and 25 times respectively. The company's 22-year planning goal is positive, and the reform action continues to be implemented. It is optimistic about accelerating growth throughout the year and maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the risk of sharp economic decline and the risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic.
