\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Events
In 2022q1, the company realized an operating revenue of 32.296 billion yuan (+ 18.43%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 17.245 billion yuan (+ 23.58%), and a net profit of 17.243 billion yuan (+ 23.43%), and the actual growth rate exceeded the expected range of the previous performance express.
Key investment points
2022q1 performance exceeded expectations and the profit side performed well. In 2022q1, the company realized an operating revenue of 32.296 billion yuan (+ 18.43%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 17.245 billion yuan (+ 23.58%). Product revenue side: 22q1 Maotai liquor and series liquor achieved revenue of 28.860 billion yuan and 3.428 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.35% and 29.71% respectively. Specifically——
1) Maotai liquor: the payment collection progress of 22q1 Feitian Maotai liquor is about 35%, and the launch rhythm is similar to that of last year. Under the background of a slight increase in the total launch of Feitian Maotai liquor compared with last year, the revenue of Maotai liquor has maintained excellent growth, mainly due to the simultaneous increase in the volume and price of the original non-standard products (the price of zodiac Maotai and boutique liquor was increased by 54% and 17% in March 21, and the company also increased the price of boutique liquor and vintage liquor in January 22);
2) series liquor: benefit from the release of price increase bonus of series liquor (in January 2021, the company raised the prices of Yingbin, Prince, Prince soy sauce classics, precious prince and Han sauce by 13%, 20%, 12%, 28% and 8% respectively. At the same time, in January 22, the company cleaned up six low-cost products less than 200 yuan, and raised the prices of six products such as golden Prince and Prince soy sauce classics by 10-15% in order to raise the price of main products to more than 200 yuan, which is expected to contribute 8-10 points to the overall price increase), The series of wines continued the development trend of high growth;
3) new products: 22q1 company launched 1935 (estimated to put in about 700800 tons) belonging to the series of liquor category, and Maotai liquor launched new products such as high priced and precious Maotai to increase its performance.
The effect of channel reform is remarkable, and the proportion of direct sales channels has reached 34%. The channel structure of the company was further optimized. In 2q1, direct sales and wholesale achieved revenue of 10.887 billion yuan and 21.401 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 127.88% and – 4.71%, of which the proportion of direct sales increased by 16.18 percentage points to 33.72%. One of the important reasons is that since January this year, the quota of some dealers of non-standard products has been transferred to direct stores to pick up goods, and the quota pick-up prices of Chinese Zodiac wine, boutique and direct stores in 2015 are 2299 yuan, 2969 yuan and 5399 yuan respectively. In terms of dealers, the number of dealers in 22q1 China decreased by 3 to 2086, and the decrease was Maotai flavor series liquor dealers.
Advance receipts increased significantly year-on-year, with excellent cost control. 22q1’s gross profit margin increased by 0.69 percentage points to 92.37% year-on-year, and its net profit margin increased by 1.42 percentage points to 55.59% year-on-year, mainly due to: 1) the steady increase of ton price; 2) Excellent expense control: during 22q1, the expense rate was 7.27% (- 0.88 percentage points), of which the sales expense rate was 1.60% (- 0.42 percentage points) and the management expense rate was 6.49% (+ 0.11 percentage points). 22q1’s operating cash flow decreased by 363.07% year-on-year to -6.876 billion yuan, mainly due to the decrease in funds absorbed by Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) Group Finance Co., Ltd., the holding subsidiary of the company, from other member units of the group; Advance receipts (contract liabilities + other current liabilities) decreased by 4.994 billion yuan to 9.261 billion yuan month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.249 billion yuan, showing excellent performance.
In the short term: Maotai liquor series is driven by two wheels, and the dividend of marketing reform will continue to be released. It is optimistic about the growth of nearly 20% of the company’s profit in the whole year. 1) From the perspective of volume, considering that the input of Maotai liquor in 2021 is only about 36000 tons, which is expected to be 50000 tons at the end of the 14th five year plan, the four years back in 2022 are the big year of Maotai base liquor production, and the volume of Maotai liquor is expected to increase or exceed the expectation in 2022; 2) From the perspective of price, the double rise of non scalar price plus the further increase of the proportion of direct sales channels will be the main direction (in line with the strategy of strengthening price control), and the dividend of marketing reform may continue to be released.
In the medium and long term: entering the 14th five year plan, take the road of Maotai and the “five line” development road. Considering the strong demand side performance, the company continues to strengthen supervision The output increased steadily (in 2021, the actual production capacity of Maotai Liquor Making Workshop / Series liquor making workshop increased from 6237 and 3324 tons to 56472 and 28249 tons respectively year-on-year. Among the design production capacity of 31660 tons of series liquor base, the design production capacity of 6400 tons of series liquor base will be put into operation in November 2021, and the actual production capacity will be released in 2022; during the 14th Five Year Plan period, Maotai liquor series is planned to achieve double 56000 tons of production capacity), the technical transformation project was steadily promoted, and the channel reform was accelerated, It is estimated that the volume and price of Maotai liquor may exceed the expectation in 2022, promoting the acceleration of the statement end. In the 14th five year plan, the company will take the road of Maotai, the “five line” development path, adhere to the “double building” and “double consolidation”, gather the main business, adjust the structure, strengthen the supporting facilities, construct the ecology, and have strong certainty of future performance.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the revenue growth rate of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 17.5%, 16.2% and 14.4% respectively; The growth rate of net profit was 18.1%, 17.8% and 16.1% respectively; EPS is 49.3 yuan / share, 58.1 yuan / share and 67.5 yuan / share respectively; The corresponding PE is 35, 30 and 26 times respectively. Considering the strong growth and performance certainty of the company, the buy rating is given.
Risk tips: 1. Macroeconomic downturn; 2. The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
